In Middle East, each blow receives a response sometimes worse than the previous one and, afterwards, the international community spreads a diplomatic mantle to relax tensions. The fear of regional escalation always lurks.
This time, the direct attack of Iran against Israel in retaliation for the air attack against his consulate in Syriain which members of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corpschanged the paradigm in the midst of the other war faced by Israel, that of the Gaza Strip against Hamas. That started October 7 with the brutal incursion of terrorists into Israeli territory.
Unprecedented events that, in turn, leave a balance that is more political than warlike. The barbarism caused by Hamas coincided with the signing of the Abraham Accordsagreed by Israel with Saudi Arabia. It is the recognition of the State of Israel for that country, archenemy of Iranas had occurred under the auspices of the Donald Trump government with United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Morocco, Sudan and Jordan. A firewall in the Arab countries through which the Persian theocratic regime, with a Shiite orientation, which supports Hamasdespite being Sunni, and other militias in the region.
Blow by blow, quarrels remain. Since the war broke out in Gaza StripIranian allies such as Hezbollah in Lebanon and the Houthis in Yemen They attacked Israeli and American military installations. A tactic called proxy war (war by proxy). Iran He insisted that he did not want a head-on confrontation with Israel. The ease of intelligence USA to obtain information prior to the rain of missiles and drones reveals a response that is more political than warlike, perhaps because Iran is not in a position to face a large coalition.
Neither the military casualties nor the selective murders of the children and grandchildren of high officials such as the leader of Hamas, Ismail Haniyehthey please the people when they feel uncomfortable with their governments
The attack of Israel against the Iranian consulate in Damascusshort fuse of the answer, was a violation of the Vienna Convention on Diplomatic Relations of 1961, as occurred almost simultaneously with the arrest of former Ecuadorian vice president Jorge Glas at the Mexican embassy in Quito. The replica of Iranwith 170 drones, 30 cruise missiles and 120 ballistic missiles against Israelhad been announced by the president of USA, Joe Biden. Netanyahu, finding out before anyone else, had time to demonstrate the effectiveness of his anti-aircraft defenses and quell previous popular protests over the inability of his troops to rescue the 130 Israeli hostages still being held. Hamas.
The new equation of Iranthe attack without intermediaries, also satisfied his own, in protest from the absurd death of the young Kurdish woman Mahsa Amini22 years old, after being arrested in September 2022 by the Greater Tehran Morale Police. The cause? She was not wearing the Islamic veil properly. Wet paper, as well as the attacks Daesh, ISIS or Islamic State in its territory, for the shock wave from the Gaza Strip. That in January shook Beirut with the attack in which the vice president of the political bureau of Hamas and founder of the Al Qassam Brigadesits military wing, Salah al Arouri.
The wave of violence shook hours later Kerman820 kilometers southeast of Tehranwith detonations that claimed more than a hundred lives near the general's tomb Qasem Soleimanicommander of the elite force Quds of the Iranian Revolutionary Guardwhere a ceremony was held for the fourth anniversary of his murder at the airport in Baghdad under siege of drones USA. Neither the military casualties nor the selective murders of the children and grandchildren of high officials such as the leader of Hamas, Ismail Haniyehthey please the people when they feel uncomfortable with their governments.
Israeli pride in having resisted the Iranian attack is associated with an identical impression of its aggressor, as if both had won the battle
Israeli pride in having resisted the Iranian attack is associated with an identical impression of its aggressor, as if both had won the battle. The president of Iran, Ebrahim Raisihe was content with having taught a lesson to Israel, Little Satanaccording to his lexicon, ally of USA, The Great Satan. Pure propaganda while Biden, reluctant to validate the death of more than 33,600 civilians in the Gaza Strip As Netanyahu's method of political survival in the face of corruption charges that could put him in prison, he will have to deal in the November presidential elections with Trump, neck and neck with the Israeli prime minister.
Interestingly, everyone involved celebrated: Iran for his demonstration of strength; Israel for having emerged victorious after his humiliating defeat against the small-time militia that invaded his territory and kidnapped his people; Biden for his unrestricted support for Netanyahu despite disagreeing over the course of the war in the Gaza Strip and its deterrent power to prevent the conflict from escalating, and Hamas, Hezbollahthe Houthis and company for the decision of the ayatollah regime to propose a new paradigm in Middle East. That of direct confrontation.
Another reply remains pending. One more if the general Benny Gantzkey member of the Israel War Cabinet Despite his reservations with Netanyahu and supporter of early elections, he imposes his plan to “form an international coalition so that Iran pay for the attack. An attack calibrated to limit damage. “Well telegraphed and relatively limited,” he assessed. Goldman Sachs the day after. The price of a barrel had fallen to $84.80. The production of Iran increased to 3.4 million barrels per day, 3.3% of world production. Under other circumstances, the markets would have made more noise than Iranian rocketry.
Note: this is an article republished from the media “El Interin” through a cooperation agreement between both parties for the dissemination of journalistic content. original link.
Jorge Elías is a prominent Argentine journalist specializing in international politics and international relations. He was a correspondent in the United States, Mexico and Canada, as well as has vast experience in investigations related to international politics. He is also a member of the Institute of International Politics of the National Academy of Moral and Political Sciences and a consulting member of the Argentine Council for International Relations (CARI).
