Burkina Faso, on the edge of the precipice

Burkina Faso has suffered two coups in less than a year, fueled by destabilization caused by frequent incursions by transnational jihadist groups. At the same time, anti-French sentiment grows, in a country that had maintained excellent relations with France. In addition, calls for help from Russia, present in neighboring Mali through the mercenaries of the Wagner company, are increasing in social networks – and by politicians.

Led by Captain Ibrahim Traoré, 34, the coup against the coup plotters on September 30 confirmed the failure of the management of the security crisis, caused by the increasingly daring attacks by the jihadists. In seven years, since the first action in October 2015, the government has lost control of 40% of its territory, especially in the north and east. During this time, some 2,000 people have died and hundreds of schools have been closed. Thousands of people have left their homes.

Traoré was elected transitional president in October at a national conference attended by some 300 people (military, trade unionists, traditional and religious authorities, among others). Now he must define the strategy to confront jihadism, grouped into two organizations, the Support Group for Islam and Muslims (JNIM, for its acronym in Arabic), affiliated with Al Qaeda, and the Islamic State in the Great Sahara (ISGS, for its acronym in English). Given the weakness of the Army, unable to take the initiative against the jihadists, Traoré must decide whether to turn to Russia, as demanded not only by hundreds of protesters, who raised Russian flags after the coup, but also by influential politicians, such as Isaac Zida, a military resident in Canada who was president for a few months after a coup in November 2014. Less explicit than Zida, Mariam Sankara, widow of President Thomas Sankara, claimed to approach other allies, “honest and credible.”

Assassinated by his fellow revolutionaries in October 1987, Sankara is revered in Burkina Faso, “the homeland of upright men” in the Mooré language, a name that replaced the colonial Upper Volta. A change with a built-in message, because the traditional servitude to France was being discussed since independence in 1960.

Despite the gesture, the name change and the anti-colonial rhetoric, the country that Sankara found when he took power in 1983 was not as far removed from France as it is now. The demonstrations on the day of the coup in front of the French embassy and the looting of the French cultural centers of Ouagadougou and Bobo-Dioulasso, the country’s second largest city, would have been unthinkable. Some protests, encouraged by social networks, that express the rejection of a former metropolis that denies them visas and that they consider haughty and which they blame for the failure against jihadism. And they look to Russia because they believe that the ruling military junta in Mali has held back rebel advances thanks to Wagner’s mercenaries, a belief not supported by the data.

Anadolu Agency / GETTY

Relationship with Moscow

Despite the invasion of Ukraine, Russia is not perceived as negatively in parts of Africa as it is in Europe. The close economic ties, the fascination of African elites for European capitals, especially Paris and London, and the presence of a significant diaspora in European countries are not an obstacle for their leaders, in some cases, to distance themselves. This was made clear in the resolutions of the United Nations General Assembly on the war. In the first, on March 2, in which it demands the withdrawal of Russian troops from Ukrainian territory, adopted by 141 votes in favor, Eritrea voted against, as did North Korea, Syria, Belarus and Russia itself. . Of the 35 abstentions, almost half were African: Algeria, Angola, Burundi, Central Africa, Congo, Equatorial Guinea, Madagascar, Mali, Mozambique, Namibia, Senegal, South Africa, South Sudan, Sudan, Uganda, Tanzania and Zimbabwe. Twelve countries were absent, eight Africans: Burkina Faso, Cameroon, Eswatini (Swaziland), Ethiopia, Guinea, Guinea Bissau, Morocco and Togo. The most recent, on October 12, in which “the illegal referendums” of the four Ukrainian regions are condemned, 143 countries voted in favor, 5 against and 35 abstained. The most significant change was that of Eritrea, which abstained. Nicaragua voted against. And Burkina Faso was absent again.

“The presence of a significant diaspora in European countries is not an obstacle for their leaders, in some cases, to distance themselves”

Of the results, the vote of Algeria, with solid relations with Moscow since the time of the Soviet Union, is not so surprising; nor from Eritrea, an isolated regime; nor from Mali, now facing France; but from traditional allies of Western countries, such as Senegal, Cameroon, Congo, Namibia and Uganda. That US and European diplomacy were unable to convince them to vote on a resolution condemning an aggression is indicative of their loss of influence. In the case of South Africa, President Cyril Ramaphosa tries to claim the role of regional power, which remains equidistant in a conflict that is being waged in Europe.

The challenge of jihadism

In Burkina Faso, the challenge Traoré faces is huge. Jihadism is spreading across West Africa without being able to stop its advance. International Crisis Group, in its Crisis Watch observatory, identified jihadist attacks in Benin, Burkina Faso, Cameroon, Mali, Niger, Nigeria and Togo in September. On the eastern coast, in Mozambique and Somalia.

The jihadist presence not only disrupts social and economic relations and gobbles up scarce resources in the war effort, it also destabilizes already weak states. In Burkina Faso, the population’s weariness in the face of jihadist advances led to the January coup against President Roch Marc Christian Kaboré, deposed by Lieutenant Colonel Paul-Henri Sandaogo Damiba. Elected in 2015, Kaboré had tried, after the failure of the military option, to dialogue with jihadist groups and had promoted the creation of self-defense groups. Approved by Parliament in January 2020, the Fatherland Defense Volunteers (VDP) receive arms from the Government and logistical support.

“The population’s fatigue in the face of jihadist advances led to the January coup d’état against President Roch Marc Christian Kaboré”

The Army and the self-defense groups face groups that are financed, among other illicit activities, thanks to the extraction of gold and the smuggling of cigarettes from Dubai, according to a document from the Konrad Adenauer Foundation. Although there are differences between the JNIM and the ISGS, they coincide in exercising violence, more indiscriminate in the second group, and in seeking social control through alliances or coercion and in practicing an alternative management of the areas under their influence, less bureaucratic , according to an academic study by Natasja Rupesinghe and Mikael Hiberg Naghizadeh, published in The Conversation.

In addition, Burkina Faso also faces challenges of internal coexistence. The implantation of Ansarul Islam among the peuls (members of a sahelian herding people who are also known as Fulanis either fulbes) threatens community coexistence, in a country that is an example of religious and ethnic coexistence. Not in the Burkinabé press, which is quite responsible, but on social media, where it is frequently associated with peul with jihadism. Anssarul Islam was founded about six years ago by a preacher, Malam Ibrahim Dicko, who contested the power of traditional and religious authorities. He did it with a speech that caught on especially among young people, in a region, Soum, bordering Mali, inhabited mainly by peuls. Upon Malam’s death in 2017, he was succeeded by his son Jafar, known as Yéro. Finally Ansarul Islam was integrated into the JNIM.