Brussels-Taipei: new game

The visit of Nancy Pelosi, Speaker of the US House of Representatives, to Taiwan in August 2022 and the ensuing military exercises and diplomatic retaliation by China have reignited international tensions in East Asia. The Biden administration has promised to defend the island, while the US Congress has been very active in sending delegations to Taiwan.

Less well known is that Europe too has stepped up its engagement with Taiwan to a level unthinkable just a few years ago, a dynamic that is welcomed in Washington but risks provoking trade retaliation from Beijing. If not carefully managed, these actions threaten to reduce the EU’s diplomatic room for maneuver and its ability to contribute to a peaceful resolution of cross-strait relations.

Deepening ties between the EU and Taiwan

Since 2021, relations between Europe and Taiwan have intensified dramatically. European governments continue to officially abide by the “One China” policy, that is, recognition of Beijing’s position that there is only one Chinese government. Under this policy, the EU and its Member States recognize and maintain formal links with the People’s Republic of China and not with the island of Taiwan. However, in practice, various EU institutions and European governments treat Taiwan as a “de facto” independent state with which they are entitled to maintain economic and political relations.

The European Parliament leads efforts to raise Taiwan’s status. On October 21, 2021, the EU legislature adopted a recommendation on political relations and cooperation between the EU and Taiwan. Among their various initiatives, lawmakers approved a recommendation to urgently launch “an impact assessment, public consultation, and exploratory exercise on a bilateral investment agreement with the Taiwanese authorities.” MEPs also expressed serious concern over China’s continued military belligerence and airspace violations, and urged the EU to do more to address these tensions, to protect Taiwan’s democracy and the status of the island. as an important partner of the EU.

“European governments continue to officially abide by the ‘One China’ policy, that is, the recognition of Beijing’s position that there is only one Chinese government”

In November 2021, a seven-member delegation from the European Parliament led by French MEP Raphael Glucksmann also visited Taiwan. This was the first official delegation sent by the European Parliament (EP) to the island. In addition, EP Vice President Nicola Beer, a German MEP from the Free Democratic Party, visited Taiwan in July 2022, where she met with Taiwanese leader Tsai Ing-wen to discuss improving relations between the two sides. The International Trade Committee of the European Parliament is scheduled to visit Taiwan in December 2022. It would be the first time in history that this Committee – one of the most important in Parliament – ​​sends a delegation to Taiwan.

National legislatures have also passed resolutions and have sent – ​​or plan to send – delegations to Taiwan. For example, a German Bundestag commission adopted a resolution on December 9, 2021 calling on the Berlin government to reassess its policy towards Taiwan and deepen exchanges with this country. The Bundestag Petitions Committee made it clear that, in light of the rapidly evolving international situation, the German government should reassess its position on Taiwan, including its possible recognition as a sovereign state.

The Human Rights Commission of the German Bundestag has announced that it will send a delegation of eight legislators from six political parties to Taiwan at the end of October 2022. A high-level delegation from the French Senate visited Taiwan in early September, it is the second delegation of the French Senate visiting the island in 2022. For its part, the UK House of Commons Foreign Affairs Committee plans a visit to Taiwan by the end of 2022. A delegation of Italian deputies is also expected to visit the island at the end of 2022.

Lawmakers are not the only ones traveling to the island to show their support for Taiwan. Several EU member states have sent – ​​or plan to send – government delegations despite criticism from Beijing.

In August 2022, a Lithuanian delegation led by Deputy Minister of Transport and Communications Agne Vaiciukeviciute visited Taiwan, during the visit it was announced that the Baltic state will open a trade office in Taipei. In response, Beijing imposed sanctions on Lithuanian politics. Slovenia and the Czech Republic have also criticized China and strengthened relations with Taiwan, part of a trend of increasing negative attitudes towards Beijing from Central and Eastern European (CEE) countries. In August 2022, Latvia and Estonia joined Lithuania in leaving the so-called 16+1 grouping, a format between Beijing and CEE countries established in 2012 as a platform for joint cooperation on infrastructure and development projects.

Western European governments and politicians are also showing increasing support for Taiwan. German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock has made several pro-Taiwan statements. In August 2022, speaking at a United Nations conference, Baerbock warned against escalating tensions with Taiwan and expressed her support for the island’s democracy, drawing the ire of Beijing.

“Giorgia Meloni (…) has promised that, in case she becomes prime minister, she will promote relations between Italy and Taiwan”

Giorgia Meloni, leader of the Italian far-right conservative Brothers of Italy (FdI) party, met with Andrea Sing-Ying Lee, head of Taiwan’s representative office in Rome, in late July 2022 During the visit, Meloni addressed Sing-Ying Lee as “Ambassador of Taiwan,” promising that should she become prime minister, she will promote Italy-Taiwan relations and play a positive role in advancing the broader ties between Brussels and Taipei.

Together with European parliaments and governments, the European Commission is developing ties with Taiwan in various fields, such as information and communication technologies and semiconductors. Brussels has recently started informal talks on an exploratory exercise with Taipei with a view to a bilateral investment treaty, a topic discussed during the latest Trade and Investment Dialogue between the EU and Taiwan, which took place on June 2, 2022 in Brussels.

Implications for the United States and China

Europe’s growing engagement with Taiwan strengthens the US position in its tug-of-war with China. Washington announced that it will start trade talks with Taiwan. The US-Taiwan Initiative on 21st Century Trade was heralded by White House Indo-Pacific Coordinator Kurt Campbell after China stepped up military exercises across the Taiwan Strait following Nancy Pelosi’s visit. in early August 2022. The US continues to defend the right of lawmakers and officials to visit Taiwan and pressures its allies to do the same.

As a direct result of the establishment of the EU-US High Level Indo-Pacific Dialogue in December 2021, the transatlantic allies have intensified coordination on Taiwan. There are plans for a Western parliamentary delegation to visit the island, an idea that was discussed in the context of the Inter-Parliamentary Alliance on China (IPAC), an international multi-party group of lawmakers formed in 2020 to work against Beijing and China. the Commission for the Advancement of a Free World which is made up of US lawmakers and allies from across Europe and Asia. Many of the members of the Commission and IPAC also belong to the NATO Parliamentary Assembly, which in recent months has become more visible in its criticism of Beijing and its support for Taiwanese democracy.

European support for Taiwan is important, as the number of countries formally recognizing the island has fallen significantly in recent years, raising the question of whether and what Europe’s activism can help reverse this trend. China’s response. Small EU member states are particularly vulnerable to Chinese trade retaliation.

“Will Europe find the strength to continue to forge closer ties with Taiwan and resist threats of economic retaliation from Beijing?”

The business community is also concerned about Beijing’s possible backlash against European companies, as China remains a very important economic partner for the EU. The bloc’s trade deficit with China currently stands at 249 billion euros. As Europe’s economic dependence on China grows, will Europe find the strength to continue closer ties with Taiwan and resist threats of economic retaliation from Beijing? As the case of Ukraine shows, there is a price to pay for defending freedom and democracy from authoritarian regimes.

Europe’s rapprochement with Taiwan is a positive development, as it gives meaning and content to the EU’s commitments to a values-based foreign policy. However, blindly following the US hard line on China risks reducing Europe’s room for maneuver to promote diplomatic initiatives aimed at reducing tensions in the region. Fostering cooperative relations with all Asian nations, including Beijing, is a fundamental pillar of the foreign policy of the EU Indo-Pacific Strategy issued in September 2021. In addition, the EU Strategic Compass – a plan of action to strengthen the EU’s security and defense policy for 2030 adopted in March this year – considers China a competitor, but also a partner. The EU’s documents regarding China and the Indo-Pacific stand in contrast to the US, which increasingly sees Beijing as a major threat to Washington’s global primacy.

The challenge facing EU policymakers is thus to find a balance between three main dynamics: (i) maintain the EU’s “one China” policy so as not to jeopardize relations with Beijing; (ii) continue to deepen ties with Taipei, including supporting initiatives aimed at deterring a possible future invasion of the island; (iii) avoid the perception of an EU that is too much on Washington’s side, in order to maintain diplomatic room for manoeuvre.

To this end, the EU should establish a communication channel with Beijing on security in East Asia with the aim of transforming it, over time, into a high-level structured dialogue mechanism that complements the high-level dialogue between the EU and the United States. United over the Indo-Pacific. Of course, China will continue to perceive Europe as a junior partner of Washington and will mistrust the EU’s intentions, while the US may be against such Sino-European dialogue for fear of losing influence.

However, if the EU wants to be a political actor in East Asia and seriously contribute to reducing tensions in an area that could easily spiral out of control – and be very damaging to the old continent – ​​dialogue with China is essential. Europe is rightly moving closer to Taiwan; it is also time to shake hands with Beijing.

Article originally published in English in the Web of International Affair Institute.