Borrell warns that China will take advantage of a Putin defeat to advance its ambitions

Despite the “unlimited friendship” signed by Moscow and Beijing just before the outbreak of the war in Ukraine, Xi Jinping will not allow himself to be swept away by the eventual failure of Vladimir Putin. The defeat of the Kremlin (which, after all, is the weak link in this alliance) will not stop China’s ambition to become the world’s leading superpower, but on the contrary could give it a boost to continue advancing in its claims, as warned Josep Borrell.

The head of community diplomacy pleads for “recalibrate” (a euphemism for hardening) relations between the EU and China and defining a “coherent strategy” to put an end to the cacophony of dissenting voices seen at the recent pilgrimage of European leaders to Beijing. His proposal document was discussed for the first time this Friday at the informal meeting of the 27 foreign ministers held in Stockholm.

If in 2019 Brussels classified China as a partner, economic competitor and systemic rival at the same time, “it is obvious that in recent years the rivalry aspect has become more important”, says Borrell in a letter addressed to the ministers. Despite this, the High Representative maintains that the EU must maintain the dialogue with Beijing. “First, because of her influence on the world. Second, because China is here to stay,” she writes.

[China ignora la petición de Macron y Von der Leyen para que obligue a Putin a salir de Ucrania]

“China’s problem is much more complex than Russia’s. Unlike Russia, China is a true systemic player. Russia represents 1% of the world’s gross national product (GNP), while China is close to 20% and its GNP will be the highest in the world in just a few years,” warns the head of community diplomacy.

For Borrell, Beijing’s ambition is “clearly to build a new world order with China at the center, becoming the first world power, symbolically in 2049, the centenary of the creation of the People’s Republic of China.” “A Russian defeat in Ukraine will not derail China’s trajectory. China will get geopolitical advantage of it,” he argues.

In any case, the High Representative admits that the future of the relationship depends on the role that Xi ultimately plays in the war in Ukraine. The Chinese president’s peace plan only confirms Beijing’s pro-Russian position, since at no time did he call for the withdrawal of troops from the Kremlin despite his insistence on territorial integrity. At the same time, Xi’s recent call to the Ukrainian president is a positive sign for the EU.

“The EU stands ready for serious dialogue with China on this crucial issue and welcomes welcome all genuinely positive movements coming from China with the aim of finding a solution,” writes Borrell. “EU-China relations will not develop if China does not put pressure on Russia to withdraw from
Ukraine,” they insist.

Regarding the conflict over taiwanthe head of community diplomacy warns that “the EU must be prepared for scenarios in which the tensions rise significantly”. At the same time, the Europeans must intensify dialogue with both Beijing and Washington in order to cool down and ensure that the status quo.

In economic matters, Borrell claims to “reduce risks and excessive dependencies”, betting on the diversification of supply chains, especially in sectors that have to do with security. At the same time, the High Representative is committed to “revitalizing the multilateral system” and warns that Europe would not benefit from a complete break that generates “two disconnected technological ecosystems”.