Bolsonaro emerges stronger from the first round of the elections

Five points separate the president of Brazil, Jair Bolsonaro (43.20%), from his left-wing rival, Luiz Inácio ‘Lula’ da Silva (48.43%). For their part, Simone Tebet and Ciro Gomes, the representatives of the so-called third way, obtained 7% of the votes in the first round of the Brazilian elections. It is not necessary to be a mathematical genius to understand that his 8.5 million votes will be decisive for victory, on October 30.

For this reason, unofficial contacts have already begun to try to win the support of these two politicians in the face of a more than disputed second round. “I want to say that I am deeply concerned about what is happening in Brazil. I have never seen such a complex, challenging and threatening situation. That is why I ask you to give me a few hours to talk with my friends and with my party to decide which direction we will take to better serve the Brazilian nation,” Gomes said after hearing the results.

“Do not expect omission from me, I have a life history of fighting for the homeland, in this country that needs us so much,” said Tebet, who belongs to the Brazilian Democratic Movement, the same party as former president Michel Temer. He was Dilma Rousseff’s deputy, he actively participated in her ‘impeachment’ in 2016, and ended up replacing her. Tebet addressed precisely this political formation and its allies during a speech, after having been recognized as the great revelation of these elections, in which he even surpassed the veteran Ciro Gomes. “Make a decision as soon as possible, because mine has already been made. I have my side and I will speak at an opportune moment. I just hope they understand that this is not just any moment for Brazil,” she added.

Behind the scenes, allies of Lula are already probing this senator, who became famous for her energetic interventions in the Senate Commission of Inquiry into the pandemic, highly critical of Bolsonaro’s role in the face of the health crisis. According to prestigious columnists in the Brazilian press, the Workers’ Party would be willing to offer Tebet a ministry in a possible future Lula government, in exchange for his support.

There are four intense weeks ahead of the electoral campaign, in which absolutely anything can happen. “We are going to talk with our adversaries, with our friends, with those who think they don’t like us, we are going to convince them that we will be the best option to improve the lives of the Brazilian people,” Lula said during the long election night of March 2. october. “We will use the opportunity of the second round to be able to measure, make comparisons between the Brazil that Bolsonaro built and the Brazil that we built, during our period in government, and compare the quality of life of the people with what they have today,” he promised. to his supporters in São Paulo.

The result of the first round reveals that the country is increasingly divided and polarized. About 32.7 million Brazilians, that is, 20.95% of the electorate, chose not to go to the polls. Abstention has reached its highest level since 1998. This is something that contrasts with the forecast of many political scientists, who believed that the campaign of economists, intellectuals and artists in favor of the useful vote to stimulate Lula’s victory in the first round would reach the most apathetic or disappointed citizens with their political class.

Bolsonarismo, also strong in Congress

The results of these elections have also made it clear that practically all the research centers in Brazil erred in their calculations on the intention to vote in favor of Bolsonaro, who was attributed at most 37%. For some analysts, 43% of the current president is explained by the rejection that Lula arouses in the conservative sectors of society, who did not find an alternative that would represent them in the third way.

That Bolsonarismo is alive and kicking has been reflected in the new composition of Parliament. Of the 27 elected senators, eight are Bolsonaristas. Some were prominent names from the Executive, such as the controversial former Minister of Women, Family and Human Rights, Damares Alves; the former Minister of Agriculture Tereza Cristina; and Bolsonaro’s vice president, General Hamilton Mourão.

Two other symbols of Bolsonarism will integrate the Chamber of Deputies. One is the controversial former Minister of Health, General Eduardo Pazuello, dismissed for his management of the Covid-19 pandemic, which in Brazil caused nearly 686,000 deaths. Despite his criticized performance, Pazuello has been the most voted deputy in Rio de Janeiro. The other is Ricardo Salles, the former Minister of the Environment, accused of participating in an international illegal timber trafficking scheme. Salles resigned in June 2021.

The Liberal Party (PL), to which Bolsonaro belongs, won almost a hundred deputies. Therefore, in 2023 it will have the largest parliamentary group in Congress in the last 24 years. “They are almost 20% of the total,” the Brazilian president proudly pointed out. On the contrary, his son Eduardo Bolsonaro, who four years ago was the most voted federal deputy in the country, lost more than a million votes.

Another striking fact is that the group of jurists who instructed Operation Lava Jato and imprisoned ‘Lula’ after accusing him of corruption obtained significant support from the electorate. Judge Sérgio Moro won a seat in the Senate. Last year he tried to present himself as a candidate for the Presidency of the country, but he did not have the support of any party. The former Attorney of the Republic Deltan Dallagnol, another decisive figure in Operation Lava Jato, was elected as a federal deputy.

On the other hand, there several deputies who regretted supporting Bolsonaro and distanced themselves from the leader who have not managed to renew their mandate. This is the case of the journalist Joice Hasselmann and the porn actor Alexandre Frota, the founder of the Free Brazil Movement (MBL), Kim Kataguiri, and the lawyer and deputy Janaina Paschoal, who was one of the authors of the petition that started the process. of ‘impeachment’ against Dilma Rousseff, in 2016.

The elections of the governors of the 27 Federated States also left Bolsonaro very well off. In Rio de Janeiro he won in the first round the government supporter Cláudio Castro, with 58.67% of the votes. In São Paulo, former Infrastructure Minister Tarcísio de Freitas is the favorite in the second round against Fernando Haddad, who in 2018 replaced Lula in the elections when he was in jail. Of the 15 governors elected in the first round, eight are with Bolsonaro and five support Lula.

That yes, two indigenous women have been chosen to lead the struggle of the native peoples of Brazil from the highest institution of the State. They are Sônia Guajajara in São Paulo and Célia Xakriabá in Minas Gerais. This result represents a growth of 200% compared to the last elections in 2018, when federal deputy Joênia Wapichana became the first indigenous woman to reach the National Congress.

Now it remains to be seen what strategy Lula and Bolsonaro are going to follow in the remaining four weeks of the campaign. As in the first round, the vote of women and evangelicals will be decisive. It is very likely that the current president will intensify the ideological war, delving into conservative issues par excellence, such as the defense of the traditional family, and the fight against the legalization of abortion and drugs. On the Lula side, on the other hand, they will foreseeably try to develop a strategy to attract the most conservative sectors through centrist candidates defeated in the first round, such as Eduardo Leite in Rio Grande do Sul or Rodrigo Garcia in the State of São Paulo.