Bolsonaro bets on the bicentennial of independence to mobilize his supporters

First modification: 09/07/2022 – 12:38

By Achim Lippold

Jair Bolsonaro, elected by surprise four years ago, needs a boost to repeat the feat of 2018. At the moment, he is credited with just over 30% of the voting intentions in the first round, compared to about 44% in favor of his leftist rival Lula. For political analyst Gaspar Estrada, Lula will surely maintain this advantage because it is unlikely that the electorate will move between now and October 2, the date of the first round. “It is a unique election because for the first time a former president is facing an incumbent,” explains political scientist Gaspard Estrada. “Both personalities are well known and their electorate is very divided. The voters’ choice in favor of their candidate was made long before the official campaign began. This means that the part of the electorate that can still change or has not made its choice is quite small,” he estimates.

A bicentennial under tension

In a sign of the tensions between the two sides, Lula decided not to call a counter-demonstration for this Wednesday, fearing clashes between his supporters and those of Jair Bolsonaro. “This Wednesday, the street belongs to Bolsonaro supporters,” a Workers’ Party official told the Brazilian press. Thanks to military parades in Brasilia and Rio de Janeiro and demonstrations in most big cities, the The incumbent president hopes to mobilize his voters en masse.In its editorial on Wednesday, the newspaper Folha de Sao Paulo harshly criticized this “usurpation of public holidays for electoral purposes.”

Last year, on the occasion of the September 7 holidays, supporters of Jair Bolsonaro tried to invade the Supreme Court in Brasilia. The far-right president said “only God could remove him,” fueling fears that he might not recognize the election result. Just a few days ago, Jair Bolsonaro attacked the Supreme Court again. He called his president a “vagabond” because he opened an investigation against “Bolsonarista” businessmen who defended in a WhatsApp group the need for a coup if his candidate lost the elections.

Criticism of the judicial system and the electoral system

Sowing doubt about the reliability of the elections is, in fact, part of the strategy of the rulers. Another part consists of presenting himself as someone who defends the most disadvantaged, highlighting that he has increased social aid, which is true. But this speech does not gel, because the issue of poverty, access to employment and education is already embodied by his rival, the former trade unionist. “My dream is that the Brazilian people have access to university and build the country that we want to have: a large and rich country. I would like young people to be able to study and make Brazil competitive with other nations,” Lula said a few days ago. in a speech in the northeast, the poorest region of the country. “When we came to power in 2002, there were three and a half million students. At the end of our government, there were 8 million. But I want 20 or 30 million students, the more the better,” he said.

Lula’s strategy

This quote pretty much sums up Lula’s electoral strategy, which plays the “it was better with me” card, and highlights the policies carried out during his two previous terms. “He is campaigning on his positive economic and social record, saying: ‘I did it once, I’ll do it a second time, but faster and better,'” explains Gaspar Estrada.

For the presidential elections, this strategy seems to work, but according to polls, the Workers’ Party and its allies will not have a majority in Congress, which will also be partially renewed. If she wins, Lula will have to negotiate with the powerful center-right group, which has so far supported far-right President Jair Bolsonaro.