Jake Sullivan, the outgoing US national security adviser, is urging the incoming Trump administration to continue President Joe Biden’s strategy of bolstering ties with allies and partners in the Indo-Pacific to counter adversaries like China and North Korea.
“The argument we will make to you is that the American position in the region is incredibly strong right now,” Sullivan said in response to VOA’s question during a roundtable with reporters on Friday.
“There should be more continuity than significant change regarding our Indo-Pacific strategy,” he said. “But I don’t know what the incoming team will actually end up doing.”
Sullivan, considered one of the chief architects of the Biden administration’s Indo-Pacific strategy, said the president’s approach is “working big time” and warned that deviating from that “will bring risks.”
Sullivan acknowledged, however, that the administration has failed to make substantial progress in denuclearizing the Korean Peninsula.
At a time when the threat from Pyongyang remains as serious as ever, Sullivan highlighted key distinctions: closer cooperation between North Korea and Russia, and a “broader alignment of competitors and adversaries: Russia, China, South Korea North, Iran.”
He repeated the administration’s warning against reducing U.S. support for kyiv, something President-elect Donald Trump has signaled he would do. What happens in Ukraine really matters for the Indo-Pacific, Sullivan said, because “China is watching.”
Biden’s advisers have often expressed concern that the West’s reluctance to bolster kyiv’s defenses could embolden China to follow Russia’s lead and invade its smaller democratic neighbor, Taiwan, or act even more aggressively in its disputed territorial claims in the South China Sea.
Bonnie Glaser, managing director of the Indo-Pacific Program at the German Marshall Fund, said cooperation between Moscow and Pyongyang has developed rapidly, with North Korea sending its troops to support Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and is likely to expand.
“We still have to see what weapons systems or military technologies [el presidente ruso Vladimir] Putin has promised to hand over [el líder norcoreano] Kim [Jong Un]” he told VOA. “Beijing has refused to apply influence to stop this trend.”
Sullivan expressed confidence that the administration has “created a great opportunity for the next team” to improve the United States’ position and has “shifted the balance of power” in the Indo-Pacific.
He outlined Biden’s approach to creating a network of alliances and partnerships, including enhancing cooperation with the Quad, an informal grouping with India, Australia and Japan, as well as implementing the AUKUS security agreement with the United Kingdom and Australia to provide Canberra with nuclear-powered submarines to better patrol the region’s waters.
Sullivan also highlighted trilateral cooperation between the United States, Japan and South Korea, with the two former adversaries now working together to deter North Korea’s nuclear threat, and between the United States, Japan and the Philippines to confront Beijing’s aggression. in the South China Sea.
Continuity or change
With relations between Washington and Beijing likely to remain adversarial, the region could see more continuity in US policy toward China under the incoming administration.
Trump has tapped two well-known China hawks for key roles in his “America First” Cabinet: Sen. Marco Rubio, Trump’s pick for secretary of state, and Rep. Mike Waltz, the man Trump is considering to become the Sullivan’s successor.
However, Waltz announced earlier this week a sweeping directive to fire all seconded national security officials from other departments and agencies who serve in non-partisan, non-political senior staff roles. Waltz said the firings were aimed at imposing absolute alignment with Trump’s political agenda.
In addition to staffing the National Security Council with Trump loyalists, it’s unclear whether the president-elect will employ the same approach of leveraging alliances to deter China.
The first Trump administration realized that “multilateral alliances are more of a burden than a reality,” said Aaron David Miller, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. During his first term, Trump terminated US membership in organizations and agreements, including the Paris Climate Agreement, the UN Human Rights Council and the World Health Organization.
“If alliances are formed, they will have to be based on clear and specific quid pro quo transactions,” he told VOA.
During his first term, Trump also focused more on bilateral ties, and he may resort to that approach.
“You could emphasize ties with strong conservative leaders like [el primer ministro Narendra] Modi in India, but downplay groups like the US-Japan-South Korea trilateral, particularly if a new government in Seoul moves a bit further away from Washington,” said Zack Cooper, a senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute.
“What’s not clear is whether Trump will take on China outside of the economic realm,” Cooper told VOA. Among the main uncertainties is whether the United States will adopt a less forceful response to Beijing’s measures in the Taiwan Strait and the South China Sea.
“Trump seems personally more open to interaction with [el presidente chino] Xi Jinping and focused on trade issues, but many in his administration will push for a tough line on security and technology issues,” Cooper said.
Change of commercial strategy
Trade is one area where analysts expect a significant shift in strategy, as Trump appears set to enact protectionist measures, threatening to use tariffs as a weapon of punishment not only against adversaries but also against regional partners, in particularly those with large trade surpluses, including Japan.
Trump is expected to undo the Biden administration’s effort to revitalize trade with the region. During his presidential campaign, Trump promised to kill the Indo-Pacific Economic Framework, Biden’s 2022 deal with countries in the region, saying it will hurt American industry and workers.
The IPEF was Biden’s attempt to bolster economic ties with Indo-Pacific countries, five years after Trump withdrew the United States from the Obama administration’s most important trade initiative, the Trans-Pacific Partnership, immediately after beginning his first term. .
The framework pursues non-trade priorities such as supply chain resilience, secure digital infrastructure and the transition to clean and sustainable energy. Many in the region have criticized him for not offering market access measures as Beijing aggressively expanded its economic influence, including through the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership, the world’s largest regional free trade pact covering nearly a third of the population and GDP of the world.
[Steve Herman de VOA contribuyó a este informe]
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