Biden acknowledges that a ‘mild recession’ is possible, although he does not believe it will happen

() — US President Joe Biden told ‘s Jake Tapper on Tuesday that the prospect of a “mild recession” is possible but that he doesn’t think it will happen, even as experts have sounded the alarm about the future of the US. the US and world economies.

“I don’t think there is a recession. If so, it will be a very mild recession. I mean, we’ll go down a little bit,” Biden told Tapper in his first exclusive interview with since he took office, later adding, “It’s possible. Look, it’s possible. I don’t anticipate it.”

Investors, economists and banks, however, are warning that the US is likely to slip into recession in the coming months.

Stocks fell on Monday after JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon warned that the US is likely to slip into recession in the next six to nine months. And last month, 72% of economists surveyed by the National Association for Business Economics said they expected the next US recession to start in the middle of next year, if it hasn’t already.

Bank of America said this week that the Federal Reserve’s battle to squash inflation by continuing to aggressively raise interest rates will see the US economy start shedding tens of thousands of jobs a month starting early next year.

Inflation concerns, and the increased likelihood of even bigger interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve, have been spooking Wall Street again and pushing up long-term bond yields. And while it may not last long, gas prices continue to rise again in most of the US.

Meanwhile, on a global scale, the International Monetary Fund on Tuesday once again downgraded its forecast for the global economy with a stark warning: “The worst is yet to come, and for many people, 2023 will feel like a recession.”

All of the world’s largest economies are slowing down, IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva said last week, pointing to the energy crisis in Europe amid Russia’s war in Ukraine, China’s property collapse and historically high inflation. high in the United States.

The president suggested on Tuesday that the United States’ ability so far to thwart a recession despite forecasts that raised serious concern gives him some confidence in the future of the economy.

“Every six months they look at the next six months and say what’s going to happen. It hadn’t happened yet,” Biden said, adding that “they’ve been predicting this from time to time.”

He also highlighted his administration’s legislative achievements aimed at helping to reduce costs, arguing: “We are in a better position than any other major country in the world, economically and politically.”

Specifically, he referred to the provisions of the Inflation Reduction Law. The law, signed into law in August, includes major health policy changes by giving Medicare the power for the first time to negotiate the prices of certain prescription drugs and extending health care subsidies that expire for three years.

“I mean…so much has been accomplished that the idea that…there’s automation in the recession just doesn’t…exist,” Biden said. He later admitted that Americans “have reason to be concerned about energy prices. They have reason to be concerned about a whole range of issues. But look what we’ve done.”

With the midterms less than a month away, Biden also argued that Democrats have something to compete with despite economic woes, saying Republicans “are going to raise drug prices, raise medical costs, let’s be sure that we will no longer be able to have the ability to have tax credits for weatherizing your home, saving money. I mean, I don’t know what they’re for.”

‘s Matt Egan, Paul LaMonica, Julia Horowitz and Alicia Wallace contributed to this report.