between Zelenski and Macron, a year of tumultuous relations

The anecdote would seem trivial if it were not indicative of the stormy relationship between France and Ukraine for almost a year. When Volodymyr Zelensky embarked on a second European tour visiting London on February 8, France did not extend an invitation because they knew nothing of his visit.

It was only after viewing the images of the Ukrainian president in London’s Westminster Hall that the Élysée services got down to business hastily arranging a meeting with Emmanuel Macron the next day. The French president had initially planned to go to the theater with his wife.

This setback – the Elysee wanted to invite the Ukrainian president a few days later – illustrates the many missed opportunities and misunderstandings that have marked Franco-Ukrainian relations since the start of the conflict on February 24, 2022.

A moderate position criticized by kyiv

The first misunderstandings date back to the moment when Emmanuel Macron called for dialogue with Moscow.

“We will have to build peace tomorrow, let us never forget it. We will have to do it with Ukraine and Russia around the table (…) But it will not be done in denial, nor in the exclusion of one and the other, not even in the humiliation”, stressed the French president on 9 May during a press conference at the European Parliament in Strasbourg.

This moderate speech, delivered in reference to the “diktat“Imposed on Germany in 1919 by the victors of the First World War, which led to a new world war in 1939-45, did not go down well in Kiev. The response from the Ukrainian Foreign Minister, Dmitro Kouleba, was blistering.

“Calls to avoid humiliating Russia can only humiliate France or any other country. Because it is Russia that humiliates itself. It would be better for all of us to focus on putting Russia in its place. That will bring peace and save lives “, he declared.

The misunderstood president was then showered with harsh comments from Eastern Europe and the Baltic countries. But “if the French position towards Russia was criticized by kyiv and other capitals, it was not questioned in France,” says Arnaud Benedetti, a political scientist and associate professor at the University of Paris-Sorbonne.

There is a form of consensus between French opinion and the political class as a whole, apart from some Atlanticist minorities. The vast majority of the French, opposed to Russia, want to favor the diplomatic route as much as possible. This French willingness to resort to dialogue instead of armed conflict is partly explained by its past: “France, which has lived through the war on its territory, retains a form of resilience from its past,” according to the expert.

Little French military involvement

By this same logic, France contributed less to arms supplies than other Western allies. With a battalion of 31 US-made Abrams tanks and billions of dollars worth of weapons and military hardware, the US military is by far Ukraine’s largest military ally. Close behind is the UK, which donated more than €7bn and 14 Challenger 2 tanks in mid-January. Next, Germany, which delivered 2,000 million euros and 14 Leopards 2 tanks, under insistent pressure from kyiv. France, however, the first military power in continental Europe, only gave kyiv 1.4 billion euros and 30 Caesar guns.

A more modest donation that, in relation to its GDP, places it below other European donors. “The lesser contribution of Paris is explained by its history. France, more timid in its material commitment, does not have the same history with Russia as the United States and the United Kingdom,” continues François Benedetti. “Remnants of the Cold War explain the more forceful positions of Washington and London since the beginning of the war.”

While the French efforts are welcomed by kyiv, they do not seem to fully satisfy Volodimir Zelensky, who is multiplying his calls for more weapons, especially fighter jets, to be provided more quickly. These repeated demands clash once again with the pragmatism of the French president.

“I am convinced that we must give priority to useful deliveries to carry out these operations and resist, instead of commitments that will arrive very late or very far”, Emmanuel Macron justified himself on February 9 after Zelensky’s visit to Brussels. , fueling Ukraine’s frustration.

France ruled out of ongoing deal between London and kyiv

Under these conditions, it is not surprising that the United Kingdom is favored by the Ukrainian authorities to sign an important contract for the manufacture of weapons and military vehicles on Ukrainian soil.

Although nothing is official at the moment, it is said that British emissaries have already visited Ukraine to explore the creation of joint ventures that would build weapons under British license, according to revelations in the British newspaper ‘Telegraph’ on February 11. Such an agreement could further strengthen the already close defense relationship between the two countries. And once again distance France from its relations with kyiv.

However, in recent days, it seems that relations between kyiv and Paris are evolving. Emmanuel Macron’s prudent rhetoric has given way to a tougher rhetoric towards Russia. In his remarks on February 8, the French head of state spoke of his desire to “ensure the defeat of Russia” and promised to accompany Ukraine to “victory”. “Words that belong to the military registry and that place Emmanuel Macron as a co-belligerent,” according to the political scientist.

At the same time, phone calls with Moscow have become rare. No phone conversation between the Elysee and the Kremlin has been reported since September.

Change of tone in Paris

“Emmanuel Macron seems to leave the diplomat’s outfit to put on the warlord’s,” analyzes Arnaud Benedetti. “Probably because he realizes that Russia has gone too far and that the springs of diplomacy are exhausted.” And in a more prosaic way, It is also a way for him to “reinvest his stature as a leader to create the conditions for unity around him, at a time when France is undergoing a social movement against pension reform.”

This change in tone did not escape Volodimir Zelensky. In an interview with ‘Le Figaro’ and ‘Spiegel’ on February 8, the Ukrainian president went so far as to affirm that Emmanuel Macron had changed: “I think he has changed. And that this time he has really changed (…) After After all, it was he who opened the door for tank deliveries. He also supported Ukraine’s application for EU membership. I think that was a real sign.” When reading the article, the comment aroused “the discreet annoyance of the Élysée”, according to the columns of ‘Le Monde‘. One more time.

*Article adapted from its original French version