Berlin’s (failed?) plan to defuse Hungary’s “blackmail” in the war in Ukraine

Hungary’s filibuster in the Ukrainian war It has already finished with the patience of the rest of the partners, who regard Moscow’s attitude as an existential threat. Orbán has even lost the only staunch ally he had within the EU, the Polish Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki, with which he had forged an axis marked by euroscepticism and constant criticism of the power of Brussels. This time, Poland has led the European policies of support for kyiv and sanctions against Moscow.

No one in the community capital knows very well how to face the challenge of Orbán, who accuses the EU of fostering an “atmosphere of war”, but at the same time he has never expressed any desire to leave, even though the other partners pointed him in the door at a tense summit two years ago. On the contrary, his government is carrying out reforms to strengthen judicial independence in an attempt to unblock billions of European funds frozen by his authoritarian drift.

[La UE lanza un ultimátum a la Hungría de Orbán por su ley homófoba: “¿Por qué no te vas?”]

The latest plan to try to defuse Hungary’s “blackmail” has come from Germany. It would be about do away with the current right of veto that all member states have in EU foreign policy decisions (which require unanimity) and move to qualified majority voting. A change that could be made without the need for the laborious and complex process of reforming the Treaties.

The Government of Berlin uses as its main argument the need to facilitate the EU’s ability to act at a time when it is trying to become a geostrategic power in response to the war in Ukraine and the rise of China. But in private he admits that his goal is prevent Hungary from taking vital decisions hostage to the other partners in order to achieve their own nationalist goals.

Germany has launched a “Group of Friends of Qualified Majority Voting” which will hold its first face-to-face meeting this Monday in Brussels, just before the meeting of the 27 foreign ministers. Spain, France, Italy, Belgium, Finland, Luxembourg, the Netherlands, Romania and Slovenia belong to this alliance. In addition, Denmark and Slovakia attend as observers. According to this principle, a decision is approved when it has the support of 55% of the Member States that at the same time represent 65% of the European population.

“The goal of the Group of Friends is improve the efficiency and speed of our foreign policy decision-making. Against the backdrop of Russia’s war of aggression against Ukraine and the growing international challenges facing the EU, the members of the Group are convinced that the EU’s foreign policy needs adapted procedures in order to strengthen the EU as an international actor”, reads the founding manifesto that was published on May 4.

“I want to tell the skeptics: neither unanimity nor 100% agreement on all decisions creates the greatest possible democratic legitimacy. On the contrary. It is precisely the courtship and the fight for majorities and alliances that distinguishes us as democrats”, argued the German chancellor, Olaf Scholz, in a speech before the plenary session of the European Parliament on May 9.

However, Germany’s plan hits an insurmountable obstacle: moving to qualified majority decisions on foreign policy requires a unanimous vote first. A unanimity that right now is unattainable precisely because of the veto of Hungary (but also of Poland). “Nobody says it’s easy, but you have to remove taboos”excuses a diplomat from one of the alliance countries.

The Hungarian Foreign Minister, Peter Szijjártó, has already made known his frontal opposition to this “progressive” initiative, which in his opinion “poses a threat to national sovereignty.” “This means nothing less than the end of national interests. No one should expect Hungary to cave in to this unpredictable and progressive German-led foreign policy.“, warns Szijjártó.

But also the radical right-wing Polish government of Law and JusticeDespite his current distance from Budapest, he has reacted furiously to the Berlin initiative. “Unanimity ensures that the interests of all EU Member States are guaranteed and that the voice of each country is taken into account, regardless of its size or population. It also ensures that any decision relating to matters of war and peace belongs to the sovereign right of each Member State, points out the Polish Foreign Ministry.

Warsaw would even like to go back and reinstate the consensus requirement in those EU policies that are now decided by qualified majority (which is almost all, with the exception of foreign policy and taxes). “The current qualified majority rules do not in any way guarantee that the objectives of the EU’s foreign and security policy will be achieved more effectively or quickly. In fact, the value of unanimity has already saved on more than one occasion to the Member States of making strategic mistakes with very negative consequences for the security of the EU”, maintains Poland.