A new railway line was opened to bring Mongolian coal to Chinese territory. Construction work on a new Russian gas pipeline to supply China through Mongolia is expected to begin in 2024. The United States is also building its geopolitical game in the region. There is no lack of friction between Beijing and Ulaanbaatar.
Beijing () – Mongolia is increasingly important for China’s energy supply. Ulan Bator has just inaugurated a new railway line that will allow it to increase its coal exports to China from 30 to 50 million tons per year.
At 233 kilometers long, the new section connects Tavan Tolgoi with Gashuun Sukhait, a Mongolian crossing on the border with Chinese Inner Mongolia. The mining industry accounts for a quarter of Mongolia’s GDP, and for its part Beijing has increased coal purchases to deal with energy problems due to extreme temperatures and high oil and gas prices on the world market – all This runs contrary to the “decarbonization” objectives that Xi Jinping had set.
Russian gas will also pass through the “Mongolian route” on its way to China. Ulaanbaatar and Moscow have announced that in 2024 construction work will begin on Power of Siberia 2, the gas pipeline to transport gas extracted from the Russian Yamal field to Chinese territory, which currently supplies Europe.
When fully operational, Power of Siberia 2 should have a flow of 50 billion cubic meters per year, in addition to the 38 billion that its twin pipeline, which came online in 2019, can theoretically provide. The new pipeline will not be able to operate before 2030 and in the most optimistic scenario it will boost Russian gas exports to China up to 128,000 million cubic meters per year, an amount that will not cover the almost 200,000 million that Moscow will lose from Europe in response to the invasion of Ukraine .
The geographical position makes Mongolia an important geopolitical chessboard for the great powers. Ulaanbaatar plays the game, trying to get along with China, Russia, and the US while gaining economic advantage.
It is no coincidence that 16 locomotives produced by the American Caterpillar circulate on the new railway line in Mongolia. In the form of non-refundable aid, Washington has also allocated 350 million dollars to solve water problems in the capital, Ulaanbaatar, where almost half of the 3.3 million Mongolian inhabitants live.
In this three-way game, Beijing remains the most advantaged player: 90% of Mongolian exports go to China, while imports of Chinese products account for a third of Ulaanbaatar’s total. In a visit to Mongolia from September 10 to 12, Chairman of the Standing Committee of the National People’s Congress Li Zhanshu stated that the long-term interests of the two countries coincide.
What the number three of the Chinese regime said is only partly true: in reality there is no lack of friction between Beijing and its neighbor to the north. In October 2020, dozens of protesters gathered in Ulaanbaatar to demand the release of ethnic Mongolians arrested in China. The previous month, in the Chinese autonomous region of Inner Mongolia, students of Mongolian origin had rebelled against the authorities over a decision to reduce the use of their mother tongue in school curricula.
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