BBVA’s takeover bid is the financial operation of the year, according to Crea Inversión

The next operations in the financial field are expected in private banking and asset management

Oct. 13 () –

BBVA’s hostile takeover of Banco Sabadell is one of the “star operations” of the year, but in the future, mergers and acquisitions operations within the financial sector may come more from fragmented areas, such as asset management and private banking, according to the firm Crea Inversión.

The entity’s partner, David López Da Lama, has indicated to Europa Press that BBVA’s attempt to take over the Catalan entity presents “a fight between two attractive and ambitious projects.”

On the one hand, Sabadell, after a period of adjustment, is one of the banks with the best projection, with a solid corporate and private banking business and a business unit in the United Kingdom that has returned to the path of growth and profitability.

At the forefront and with a robust solvency situation, BBVA intends to take a leap in its national business with the acquisition and thus reinforce its corporate business (until now more focused on the corporate segment), its presence in several communities, such as Catalonia and Asturias , and achieving synergies through the integration of structures and equipment.

Regarding who will emerge as the winner, López Da Lama has considered that the situation right now “seems quite equal”, although the “limited support” it is generating in the different governments and the possible conditions imposed by the CNMC – he has recalled the case of IAG and Air Europa – may have an impact on the final outcome of this corporate operation.

On a broader level regarding the state of the financial sector, this specialist has stated that the consolidation of the sector is a topic that has been talked about at length for years, explaining both the advantages (improved efficiency, ability to offer credit and assume the increasing capital requirements) as well as the inconveniences (less supply for the consumer and layoffs, among others).

Likewise, he recalled that, to date, the consolidation that has occurred – although it has been relevant – has rather been derived from a need to restructure the sector in a harsh macroeconomic environment (mainly savings banks after the various crises). than an agreement between rivals.

However, regarding the future of the financial sector, López Da Lama has focused on the fact that there is still room for more operations, although perhaps in more fragmented segments than retail banking, such as asset managers and profile-oriented banks. of high net worth.

NEW ACTORS

On the other hand, this expert has pointed out that, along with the consolidation process, there is also the emergence of new actors that are gaining size and relevance, thus expanding the range of options for companies and individuals.

In that sense, he has cited two neobanks such as MyInvestor and N26, which could be joined by other newly digital entities such as Trade Republic and Scalable Capital, since they appear as leaders in deposit capture in the first half; largely due to the context of high interest rates that has allowed the remuneration of this type of products at attractive levels.

“This is not a revolution in the structure of the sector, but it is an evolution where we think that, in the medium term, new actors will continue to emerge in the financial sector,” he noted about these new figures in the fray.

THE FINANCIAL SECTOR IN EUROPE

Extrapolating the situation to the European community framework, the Crea partner commented that the consolidation process has been relevant in Europe, more accentuated in those countries most affected by the last banking crisis, such as the United Kingdom and Italy.

In the case of Germany, he commented that this marked consolidation process did not take place, thus having a more fragmented sector, although the situation of two of its main groups, Deutsche Bank and Commerzbank, has been complex and they have needed both the support of the German Government.

THE CHALLENGE OF MORE CROSS-BORDER OPERATIONS

Therefore, and on a theoretical level, he considered that “it would make sense” for more cross-border operations to take place such as the one now in vogue between the Italian Unicredit and the aforementioned Commerzbank to obtain more solid entities with the scale to offer a greater volume of credits. , although the “regulatory complexity” currently works against these processes.

Linked to this, it has once again put the focus on Spain to draw attention to the fact that the presence of international banking is at low levels after the staggered exits in recent years: “Barclays or Citi in retail; UBS or BNP in private banking “, he listed.

STATE AND FORECASTS OF THE MERGERS AND ACQUISITIONS MARKET

After a “complicated” 2023 for mergers and acquisitions (M&A) activity, López Da Lama has pointed out that 2024 is being a year of adjustment and, although the trend of longer and more exhaustive processes continues, we are already “seeing a recovery in the market” and even multiples -mainly in larger operations, he pointed out-.

On this point, he highlighted the activity of large venture capital funds as one of the main points that has supported the recovery of activity in the sector, while he cited operations, among others, such as the purchase of Idealista by Cinven and that of Applus+ by Amber (the combined amount of both alone exceeds 4,000 million euros).

Likewise, he has also cited the intense activity in the telecommunications sector in view of the creation of MasOrange after the merger of Orange and MásMóvil, the sale of Vodafone and the entry of STC and the State into Telefónica.

Looking ahead to 2025, it has opted to maintain positive forecasts for the sector thanks to the dynamism of international venture capital, the downward trend in interest rates and the rotation of the fund portfolio, since the Next year it foresees that there will be a notable number of divestments after the uncertainty of recent years.

Going into detail about the forecasts for the Spanish market, Crea’s partner has cited the technology sector as an issue to follow for reasons such as the activity that is being registered in segments such as ICT consulting, as well as the fact that the trends around The use, management and storage of data are driving the ‘cloud’, ‘data analytics’ and cybersecurity segments.

Likewise, he has stressed that the need for portfolio rotation will also occur among ‘venture capital’ funds, accentuated in part by the complexity of raising financing rounds, and that there is a growing interest from venture capital funds in this type of companies.

However, beyond technology, he has pointed out that he also expects to see greater activity in companies linked to sectors such as aerospace and defense, due to their structural tendency; and in energy, transportation, logistics and industry, due to the effect of consolidation in these sectors.