Banxico projects peak of nearshoring in Mexico between 2026 and 2030

Despite positive expectations for the future, 31.6% of companies believe that the benefits of nearshoring will begin to materialize in 2025, while 11.2% expect the effects to be felt as early as 2024.

In the past year, 12.9% of companies reported experiencing direct benefits from this trend, a significant increase from 9.3% in the previous period (July 2022 to June 2023).

The northern and central-northern regions of the country are the most favored by this dynamic, suggesting a concentration of opportunities in these regions. However, the prosperity of nearshoring is not without its challenges.

Three challenges

Among the risks highlighted by business leaders are deteriorating public safety, persistent inflation and the threat of adverse weather events.

“We consulted with business leaders about the factors that they think are contributing to driving relocation, and some other factors that imply challenges for relocation and the benefit that Mexico has due to its close geographic position with the United States and at the same time also the commercial relationship it has through the different trade agreements,” said Alejandrina Salcedo, Director of Economic Research at Banxico.

In addition, the recent approval of the reform of the Judicial Branch in Mexico has raised concerns about the rule of law. Banxico has indicated that it will evaluate the impact of these reforms to ensure that an environment that encourages investment is maintained.