On Thursday, Banxico lowered the reference interest rate and placed it at 10% . The members of the Governing Board voted unanimously to reduce the rate by 25 basis points, as the market expected in the face of inflation that has slowed.
Analysts are hoping that in the minutes of this Thursday’s meeting, which will be published on January 9, there will be more signs of what they expect in an environment of uncertainty due to the arrival of Donald Trump to the presidency.
“By 2025 we expect gradual cuts of 25 basis points in each of the meetings to reach a final year rate of 8%,” estimated Julio Cesar Ruiz, chief economist at Citi Mexico.
For the analyst, it is premature to know if Donald Trump’s threats of tariffs will modify Banco de México’s analysis.
“Depending a lot on what type of policy he is going to announce against Mexico or not, it could significantly change the impact of the United States with Mexico,” he highlighted.
Analysts consider that now the reference rate could close 2025 at levels between 8% and 8.5%.
“In addition, internal and external factors can revive financial volatility, which would suggest maintaining a high Banxico-Fed rate differential. Despite all this, since Banxico itself estimates that inflation will take longer to return to the target, but considering the more lax tone in the prospective guide presented today, we estimate that the target rate will close 2025 at 8.50%,” said Alejandro Saldaña, chief economist at Bx+.
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