The Freedom Party starts as a favorite but will have serious difficulties in forming a government
September 28 () –
More than six million Austrians will go to the polls this Sunday for key elections that could result in the first victory of the extreme right in a general election, a process that will allow us to verify whether the good results achieved by the Freedom Party (FPO) In the European elections last June they ended up consolidating.
The formation of the controversial Herbert Kickl is the favorite with 27 percent of support, according to the latest voting intention polls, followed by the Christian Democrats (OVP) of the People’s Party of the chancellor, Karl Nehammer, who currently governs with the Greens and who again rejected on Friday any type of agreement with the extreme right.
As these data indicate, the FPO is the clear favorite and is two percentage points above Nehammer’s party – a former soldier who advocates defending and maintaining the “stability of Austria” – but everything indicates that The party will encounter serious difficulties when it comes to forming a government if it finally obtains that long-awaited victory.
Behind both formations are the social democrats of the SPO, with 21 percent of the support, the Greens and NEOS-La Nueva Austria and Foro Liberal, tied with nine percent of the votes. These formations are followed with 3 percent by the Communist Party and the Beer Party (BIER), led by the latter by the singer of a punk-rock band known as Marco Pogo, who took a surprise 8 percent. percent of the votes in the presidential elections and is committed to creating a “birrhocracy.”
As in other European countries, the far right has based its campaign on desperation, disaffection and existing economic problems, for which it has largely blamed increased migration and war in Ukraine. In this context, the FPO now seeks to take advantage of the latest setbacks suffered by the main party in the Government, hit by several corruption scandals.
The frustration of the Austrian electorate – which does not seem to support a majority government – has been redirected towards the policies of the FPO, which nevertheless defends the presence of similarities between the different formations as it seeks to put an end to accusations of extremism and alleged sympathy towards neo-Nazi ideology. The party, however, was initially led by a former officer of the German Schutzstaffel.
Kickl, who heads one of the oldest far-right parties in Europe and insists on the importance of achieving a “strong Austria”, has stressed that the objective of the Government’s policies must be to completely prevent the step to migration. Thus, he has stressed that there are agreements with the social democrats regarding pensions and “other social issues.”
All this allows us to draw a scenario in which, although the extreme right would be elevated, the resulting combination would once again leave in the hands of Nehammer the formation of a new coalition government, whose composition would clearly be simpler than that of an executive headed by Kickl, who was already Minister of the Interior between 2017 and 2019 in a government led by the OVP that was blown up due to the well-known ‘Ibiza case’.
Its program – ‘Fortress Austria, Fortress of Freedom’ – has as its main objective to minimize the arrival of irregular migrants and asylum seekers, in addition to blocking family reunification, so defended by organizations defending Human Rights. Instead, he supports what he has called the “remigration” of these populations to their places of origin — a term by which he refers, in reality, to mass deportations.
RUSSIAN GAS AND UKRAINE WAR
Everything indicates that the next government that emerges from the polls after this Sunday’s election in Austria will have to face important energy issues, such as the problem of Austria’s dependence on Russian gas, a burning issue in the midst of the invasion of Ukraine.
The FPO is considered in this sense a party closer to Moscow, which is why it could seek agreements with Russia and make foreign policy in relation to Ukraine more difficult. The party already signed a cooperation pact a few years ago with the United Russia Party, the formation of Russian President Vladimir Putin.
This issue raises concerns within the European Union, which has imposed several rounds of sanctions against the Russian Government as the war on Ukrainian territory progresses. Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán, who has used the veto on several occasions to stop the delivery of military aid to Ukraine, maintains a close alliance with the FPO in the European Parliament and is seen by many as a role model for Kickl.
In this sense, it is foreseeable that Vienna – which is not part of NATO – will come under new pressure in the near future to advocate for the diversification of energy supplies in an attempt to achieve greater independence, plans that the FPO could frustrate if it reaches the government.
However, secondary sources of energy have turned out to be more expensive for many countries in the community bloc, an issue that could condition the Austrian electorate, clearly seeking policies that involve less expenses.
From Brussels, the FPO – which is part of the Identity and Democracy group – is viewed with suspicion, especially due to its foreign policy and its Eurosceptic stance, issues that could impact cohesion and make the imposition of joint measures even more difficult.
Thus, the FPO, riding the European wave that has promoted similar parties in countries such as France, Germany or Italy, will have to wait for this Sunday’s results to start making decisions. The Austrians, for their part, will have the opportunity to give their last word on the possibility of continuing to support the Government or turning their backs on it and completely opening the door to the extreme right.
Add Comment