aspires to win a general election for the first time

More than six million Austrians are called to the polls this Sunday, in a general election marked by the advance of the ultranationalist party FPÖthe favorite of the polls.

If the forecasts are confirmed, It would be the first time that the FPÖ wins a legislative election at the national levelone of the oldest far-right formations in Europe, founded in the 1950s by former Nazi officers.

Led by the former Minister of the Interior Herbert Kicklthe party ultra, anti-immigration, pro-Russian and eurosceptichas been leading the voting intention “in a very solid way” for more than a year, explains political scientist Thomas Hofer to a group of journalists, including EFE.

Remember that Kickl has been able to monopolize the growing discontent of the electorate with the Conservative and Green Government, weighed down by internal tensions and controversial management of multiple crises, from the pandemic to the Russian invasion of Ukraine and the famine.

For months now, The polls have been predicting first place for the FPÖ with 26-28%, followed by the ruling and conservative People’s Party (ÖVP) of Federal Chancellor Karl Nehammer (25%) and the opposition Social Democratic Party (SPÖ, 20-21%).

Fourth place is disputed by the liberal Neos (9-12%) and the Greens (ecologists, 8-10%).

With little chance of exceeding the 4% threshold required to enter Parliament, the communists and the anti-establishment Beer Party are also competing.

In the european elections of last June 9, considered in Austria as a general rehearsal for tomorrow’s legislative elections, the FPÖ, although was the most voted, with 25.5%below the forecasts, very close to the ÖVP (24.7%).

“This time we will do it, we will get first place”declared the leader of the FPÖ, Herbert Kickl, the day before, when closing his campaign at a rally held in St. Stephen’s Square, in front of the homonymous and emblematic cathedral of Vienna.

Although the ultras have already been part of a Government in the past, they always did so in alliance with the Popular Party as the second partner in the coalition, while now it would be their turn, according to tradition, to head the Executive.

Given this perspective, Kickl is confident that will be the next ‘Volkskanzler’ (people’s chancellor), a controversial term due to its history: it is the same term used by the National Socialists to refer to Adolf Hitler.

The hope of conservatives

But the ultra leader has a problem: all the other parties rule out allying with him and since there is no indication that he will obtain an absolute majority, it is not clear who he could agree on a coalition with to come to power.

Furthermore, the distance between the FPÖ and the ÖVP has narrowed in recent weeks, according to the most recent polls.

Analysts believe that the current head of the Government and his party have benefited from their management of the recent natural disaster caused by Cyclone Boris in eastern Austria, while the ultras, opposed to measures to mitigate climate change, have fallen. a point in the intention of the vote.

Closing his campaign at a rally in Vienna, Nehammer on Friday expressed hope that the ÖVP will be able to catch up with or even surpass the FPÖ, and reiterated his categorical refusal to accept Kickl’s participation in a common cabinet, although he left open the possibility of an alliance with the ultras without their leader.

“We do not exclude in advance any party that is in Parliament but I have clarified with whom it would not be possible to form a responsible and sustainable government. The current leader of the FPÖ does not meet these criteria, which is why I exclude him.”said the chancellor.

For his part, Andreas Babler, leader of the social democratic SPÖ (third in the polls), concluded his campaign in Vienna this Saturday seeking the vote of those who would want to prevent the rise to power of the extreme right, by highlighting his absolute rejection of making an agreement with the FPÖ.

“We are the firewall against everything that endangers this democratic republic,” Babler forcefully stated before thousands of followers.

According to local analysts, an in-extremis victory for the ÖVP makes a coalition between the ÖVP and the FPÖ more likelysince it would be easier for him to demand that Kickl not be part of the Executive.

On the other hand, a narrow victory for the FPÖ could end in a tripartite coalition of the ÖVP with the SPÖ and the NEOS.