ASIA India to overtake China as world’s largest rice producer by 2033

The report, prepared by the OECD and FAO, estimates an increase in world production of 11%, with consistent growth in exports from Cambodia and Myanmar. After overcoming the peak caused by fears of drought, prices are still 14% higher than twelve months ago.

Milan (/Agencies) – World rice production will grow by 11% over the next 10 years, reaching 587 million tonnes in 2033, according to the Agricultural Outlook published by the OECD (Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development) and the FAO (the UN agency for food and agriculture) for the period 2024-2033, which was published in recent days. The increase over current levels is expected to be determined by improved yields.

In Asian countries – where much of the world’s rice production is concentrated – expansion “should be robust”. The biggest growth is expected to come from India, which is expected to overtake China to become the world’s largest rice producer. China will take second place, followed by Indonesia, Thailand and Vietnam.

In terms of exports, rice shipments from South and South-East Asia are expected to grow at an annual rate of 2.8% over the next decade, allowing the region to further expand its share of global exports to 86%. According to OECD and FAO forecasts, a significant part of this growth should be recorded in countries that are currently less developed, such as Myanmar and Cambodia. “Their rice exports – says the report – will collectively increase by 146%, from 4.3 million tonnes today to 10.5 million tonnes in 2033”, with greater penetration in Asian and African markets.

In terms of price trends, the Outlook notes that global wheat and corn prices continued to fall last year, after rising in 2022 following Russia’s military offensive in Ukraine. In contrast, 2023 proved to be a tumultuous year for the rice market: “Prices – the researchers explain – reached a 15-year high, initially driven by concerns about the negative effects on production of the drought caused by the El Niño weather phenomenon and an intensification of export restrictions by India in July and August 2023. Further price increases have since been avoided thanks to signals resizing the real impact of El Niño on world production, coupled with exceptions to restrictions put in place by India and increased shipments from other producers. Nevertheless, due to persistent uncertainties related to trade policies and weather conditions, international rice prices remained high: in March 2024 they were about 14% higher than the previous year’s levels.”

The Outlook notes that a “substantial portion” of South and Southeast Asia’s agricultural trade takes place within the region. It adds, however, that these markets also have to cope with the risks created by Houthi attacks on ships in the Red Sea that prevent transit through the Suez Canal. “As long as the conflict persists, trade from Southeast Asia to Europe and North Africa will have to detour around the Suez Canal and pass through the Cape of Good Hope, adding time and transport costs that can disrupt supply chains.”