In recent days, the first direct contact between the Turkish president and the Armenian prime minister took place. It was a phone call, in a complex attempt to normalize diplomatic relations -but above all commercial relations- between both countries. Baku and Moscow are watching developments with interest. The resistance of the Armenian diaspora, which wants the genocide to be recognized.
Milan () – There are technical trials for a thaw between Turkey and Armenia. Although the underlying motive is convenience and not so much conviction, this time it could culminate in a partial reopening of the border between the two countries. Two days ago, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan had a telephone conversation with Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinian. Officially, the reason for the phone call was to send greetings to the Turkish president on the occasion of Eid al-Adha – in Turkish Kurban Bayrami, the Feast of Sacrifice. Erdogan responded by sending his wishes for Vardavar, the traditional “water festival”, which is also celebrated by the Muslim minority living in the country and which will take place on July 24. Leaving aside the dates, the phone call is part of a complex framework: the normalization of diplomatic, commercial and tourist relations between the two countries.
The border between Turkey and Armenia has been closed since 1993, that is, since the first Nagorno-Karabakh war, in which Turkey did not hesitate to take sides in favor of Azerbaijan, considering the cultural and religious ties that bind it to Ankara. On the other hand, the Armenian genocide of 1915 weighs negatively on relations between the two countries, which cost the lives of more than a million people. The Crescent country has always stubbornly denied the facts, denouncing, for its part, the death of thousands of Muslims at the hands of “rebellious Armenians”. Finally, the Turkish military and logistical support to Baku during the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict in 2020 seemed to have removed any possibility of reconciliation.
The Armenian-majority enclave on Azerbaijani territory, the scene of bloody conflicts, remains an unresolved knot and one of the hottest spots in the Caucasus. But Vladimir Putin wants a stable region and his main concern is the political, economic and energy axis that Ankara is forming with Baku. Therefore, he welcomes the reconciliation between Erdogan and Pashinian, which should culminate in a Turkish renunciation of the military presence on Azerbaijani territory (incompatible with the “normalization” of relations).
These are, at least, the hopes of the Kremlin. Ankara may give up having soldiers in the Caucasus (for the time being), but it will hardly change the orientation of a foreign policy that is increasingly focused on creating zones of influence and where the Caucasus is an almost natural outlet. Reconciliation with Armenia could also be read in this sense, and this would not be good news for Russia. Yerevan is the party that has had to make the most concessions, especially in some territories of Nagorno-Karabakh, which are again under Azerbaijani control, so that relations with Turkey are resumed and so that the country stops suffering from the commercial isolation that it suffers since the 1990s and for which it has created a double bond with Moscow.
Meanwhile, Ankara and Yerevan are taking their first steps. On July 1, a memorandum was signed in Vienna that “will be put into practice in the immediate future.” On the part of Armenia, the wish is that it be implemented as soon as possible. In February, the first commercial flights between one side of the border and the other resumed and, two days ago, Erdogan’s first direct contact with the Armenian prime minister took place.
According to the Turkish press, the two leaders stressed the importance of improving relations between the two countries, contributing to peace and prosperity in the region. In a first stage, the border between Turkey and Armenia could only be opened to people from third countries who need to cross it for tourist purposes. It seems that everything is going well, but Pashinian is in trouble because of the internal opposition and also because of the resistance of the Armenian diaspora, for which the recognition of the 1915 genocide is the condition sine qua non to resume any kind of relationship.
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