ARMENIA Tensions in Yerevan seen from Moscow

According to Russian political scientist Dmitry Trenin, with a change in the leadership, Armenia would no longer find allies in the West; the United States would step aside, and Azerbaijan and Turkey would be free to deal with an insurgent Armenian government on their own. The important thing for Moscow is that “another unfriendly front does not form.”

Moscow () – Relations between Russia and Armenia have recently reached an unprecedented level of tension, given Yerevan’s historical gratitude towards the empire that saved at least part of the Armenians from genocide, and which allowed a fairly peaceful coexistence even in Soviet times, when the Armenian republic remained one of the most impervious to socialist Russification. A well-known Russian political scientist, Professor Dmitry Trenin, a member of the Kremlin’s Russian Council on International Affairs, commented on this situation in Novosti-Armenia.

In several interviews, the expert argued that the West is unable to compensate for the size of Armenia’s security system, which has always been provided by Russia. Armenians also believe that it is precisely Russia that has caused the collapse of this system in recent years, by not protecting Armenia from Azerbaijan during the Nagorno Karabakh clashes, thus failing to fulfill its commitments as an ally, while the Russians fear that the coming and going of the Yerevan government could bring NATO contingents to Armenian territory, triggering another very serious crisis.

Trenin recalls that Armenia’s victory in the first Karabakh war in 1994, on very favourable terms, was made possible precisely by Russia’s support. In the nearly thirty years that followed, before the new Azerbaijani war, the Russians did everything possible to resolve all the reasons for the conflict through diplomatic means, and it seemed that the parties were close to an agreement, but “it is not Russia’s fault that this later fell apart.” In his opinion, the Armenians refused to take advantage of the numerous opportunities that Moscow offered them before 2020.

Today, without wishing to bring up the past, “potential dangers for Armenia come from Azerbaijan and Turkey,” and according to the political scientist, “if the United States were to take care of this, there would certainly not be columns of Turkish tanks on the borders, but Armenia would still be forced to comply with the interests of Turkey.” All this would be presented as “strengthening peace and stability in the region,” and the Americans would endorse it by saying that “they want to help Armenia’s economic progress.”

On the other hand, one must take into account Armenia’s internal political instability, such as the emergence of a new popular opposition movement, the “Tavowš in the Name of the Homeland,” led by Archbishop Bagrat Galstanyan, in which many react against the continued handover to neighboring countries. A change in the country’s leadership could then occur, “either through elections or a popular uprising,” and then Armenia would no longer find allies in the West; the United States would step aside, and Azerbaijan and Turkey would be free to deal alone with an insurgent Armenian government. According to the political scientist, “there would probably not be a major conflict, but there would be new pressures and military actions in various parts of Armenia and its borders.”

The interview warns that “there will also be those who expect help from Iran” who would resent the growth of Turkish influence in the region, which is already considerable. So far, Tehran maintains a non-hostile attitude towards Ankara, but even this balance could be broken, due to Iran’s allergy to any form of alliance with the Americans (via Turkey) and Israel (via Azerbaijan), although “Iran has much bigger problems to solve than the status of Armenia.” Trenin does not believe that “the only alternative is to turn Armenia into a vassal of Russia,” both because that would be impossible and because no one in Russia really wants it; the important thing for Moscow is that “another unfriendly front does not form that would allow geopolitical adversaries to swallow up Armenia.”

Photo: Flickr/Alexanyan