ARMENIA-RUSSIA-EU The contradictions of Yerevan between Moscow and the West

Armenians accept an EU observer mission on the disputed border with Azerbaijan. The irritation of the Kremlin, its historical partner. The Russians fear that Armenia is preparing a geopolitical turn. After Syria and Ukraine, the risks of a third front of conflict between Putin and the West.

Moscow () – The report of the European Parliament Committee on Foreign Affairs, which includes an appeal to Azerbaijan to withdraw its troops from the territory of Armenia, was received with great enthusiasm in Yerevan. Added to this is the decision to set up an EU observer mission to control the Armenian-Azerbaijani border, which is considered a victory for Armenia in the diplomatic field. At the same time, these moves have provoked a strong reaction from Russia, which remains the first partner of the Armenians.

Moscow considers the statements of the Yerevan leadership supporting the arrival of European representatives to the border with Azerbaijan unconvincing. The words of Prime Minister Nikol Pašinyan that the mission should also verify the movements of Russian and Armenian troops to avoid unfair accusations by the Azerbaijanis were met by the Kremlin with great perplexity and irritation.

In Moscow they are convinced that the EU is trying to change the security system in the South Caucasus. Foreign Relations representative Maria Zakharova spoke of an “attempt to drag the European Union into the region” while “Russian peacekeepers ensure tranquility in Nagorno-Karabakh.”

Adding fuel to the fire was the news that the EU mission could not only be civilian, with the incorporation of a group of French gendarmes. The explanations from Yerevan that the gendarmes, due to their profession, are better prepared to write the necessary reports, did not convince the Russian side much. In this context, the statements by Moscow and Yerevan about their intentions to strengthen mutual cooperation, including in the military field, arouse suspicion among Moscow politicians that the Armenians are actually preparing a geopolitical turn, because they did not like it. Moscow’s attentions to Baku while trying to rein in Armenia.

Moscow’s mediation is more acceptable to the Azerbaijanis than to the Armenians, who consider that their historical allies do not adequately support them, not only in deeds but also in words. Moscow’s exhortations to release the Lachin corridor, addressed equally to both contenders, were seen as provocative and amateurish naïveté. Not to mention Yerevan’s difficult relations with the CSTO, the Russian-led Eurasian military alliance, which has done nothing to defend one of its members from Azerbaijani aggression, once again not bothering to make statements to favor of Armenia. Even Belarusian President Lukashenko has advised Armenians to accept Baku’s demands.

It is not surprising then that Armenia has turned to the EU, where it has found more understanding than its ex-Soviet “friends”. On the other hand, the circumstances related to the war in Ukraine mean that the Europeans themselves are not very well disposed towards the Russians, and Yerevan runs the risk of being between a rock and a hard place, represented in this scenario by Azerbaijan and Turkey. .

The attraction that Europe exerts in these areas could also alarm Iran, which is very interested in unblocking the communication routes of the Caucasus. Tehran has already spoken out against involving other players in the game, stating that it is ready to help solve the problems.

The Armenian political scientist Beniamin Matevosyan, commenting on all these overlaps on News.am, recalls that the clash between Russia and the West is developing in two directions, Ukraine and Syria, and considers it very dangerous that a third front should open up in the Caucasus. The contradiction, moreover, has already permeated Armenia, with the risk that “Artsakh [Karabaj] and Armenia itself become a new theater of global war.