Armenia, center of a new geopolitical clash between Russia and the West

In Yeghegnadzor, a small mountainous town in southern Armenia, German Markus Ritter and his team are setting up a controversial new European mission.

Ritter, a police by profession With experience in countries such as Iraq and Afghanistan, he has been recruiting around one hundred European Union observers for just a few weeks to work in this country in the Caucasus.

He and his closest collaborators still sleep in a nearby hotel and his office is somewhat makeshift, but the goal of your mission It is clear: to help generate stability in a region where tensions are increasing and where the next war could break out at the gates of Europe.

Hence, the mission seeks to increase “a sense of security” among the population, as Ritter and his team explain, adding that their presence in Armenia is not military, but civilian.

Security, however, is not guaranteed. Yeghegnadzor is not far from the border between Armenia and Azerbaijan, two enemy countries that recently clashed violently, right on the border, in September 2022.

Today, in that disputed area there are locations where the troops of both countries look at each other with suspicion from a few meters away. There are villages with burned houses, with obvious scars from past wars. There are families that still mourn their dead soldiers.

It is also a region where, for years, Russian soldiers have patrolled the border. And the government of Vladimir Putin has already made it clear that it does not welcome the arrival of Europeans in what it considers to be his region of influence.

Russia sees itself as the main guarantor of peace in the Caucasus and the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of that country said it’s a statement that the arrival of representatives of the European Union in the border regions of Armenia “can only bring geopolitical confrontation to the region and exacerbate existing contradictions.”

Ritter, for his part, acknowledges that Russian border soldiers do not view his mission favorably and consider it a “distorting element.”

But it also highlights a different position: “The population shows us their gratitude every day,” he says. “They no longer feel protected by the Russian peacekeepers,” he says.

Among the Armenians consulted for this report, some do feel disappointed that Russia had not done more to prevent past confrontations between Yerevan and Baku. But others say that without the soldiers sent by Moscow, the situation could be much worse.

The Caucasus, a scenario of geopolitical tensions

In any case, the truth is that the border region between Armenia and Azerbaijan is becoming a new zone of political confrontation between Russia and the West.

For Armenia, that means carefully balancing its relations with both worlds. This explains, for example, why Armenia has abstained from voting at the United Nations to reject the Russian invasion of Ukraine.

Russia has a lot of political, historical and economic influence in Armenia. In addition, it has a military base in that country. Not to mention that Russian is a commonly used language.

In fact, the magazineThe Economist’ recently ranked Armenia as the country with the second closest geopolitical proximity to Russia, only surpassed by Belarus.

In particular, Armenia is a member of the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO), to which six countries of the former Soviet Union belong with the aim of protecting each other: Armenia, Belarus, Russia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan. .

But the government in Yerevan has criticized Moscow for not helping the country sufficiently in its conflict with Azerbaijan and has tried to distance himself from the common treaty.

At the same time, Yerevan has made efforts to move closer to the European Union. The most obvious decision: invite the observers in Yeghegnadzor led by Markus Ritter.

“The presence of the EU observers is very important to us and we are very grateful,” the deputy foreign minister said in an interview. vahan kostanyan.

“It’s another layer of security for us,” he added. “All our partners should respect our decision.”

Armenia also participates in certain NATO operationsalthough it is not a member of the western alliance, and has a cooperation agreement with the European Union.

Military training for civilians for fear of a new war

Armenia, with a population of three million, is a small country in a region of powers. Russia, Iran and Türkiye seek to stomp on the Caucasus. For Yerevan that has been accompanied by tensions.

In fact, its land borders with two of its four neighbors are closed: with its staunch enemy Azerbaijan and partly with Turkey, which is close to Baku. The main outward land arteries run to Georgia in the north and Iran in the south.

The tension is also evident by the unresolved status of Nagorno-Karabakh, a disputed territory between Armenia and Azerbaijan that experienced a 44-day war in 2020. The area is guarded by peacekeepers from the Russian Army, which has mediated in the conflict.

The population, in general, is concerned: 89 percent, according to a 2022 studybelieves that the country will be affected by wars in the future, a higher percentage than in countries like Turkey or Ukraine.

AND most he also believes that a new war in Europe is likely in light of rising tensions between Russia and the West.

“We live in a time where we don’t know if there will be an unfortunate event in the future,” says Gohar, a 27-year-old dentist and mother of a one-year-old baby.

After his workday, Gohar attends an evening military and first aid training course for civilians, offered by a paramilitary organization called Voma, which is well known in Armenia, but has received strong criticism from Azerbaijan.

“The situation on our territory is unstable,” says Gohar. “Every person in Armenia has to be ready in case something bad happens.”

The government in Yerevan also acknowledges those fears. “People train because they feel insecure,” says Deputy Minister Kostanyan.

“It’s hard to sleep when you know that a new large-scale aggression could break out at any minute,” he adds.

Meanwhile, in Yeghegnadzor, Ritter and his team continue to equip themselves to help defuse tensions. They have a two-year mandate and soon hope to move to a larger office, as well as obtain all the necessary personnel and vehicles for their civilian mission.

“We’re just a small mission,” Ritter says.

“But what we can do is draw public attention to this area and give people the feeling that they are not alone, that the international community is monitoring the situation.”

The visit to Armenia was supported by the German Social Democratic Foundation Friedrich Ebert Stiftung.