The pressure on prices that consumers have been experiencing for almost a year would have continued in August. According to the main players in the market, after the figure for July of 10.21%, the consumer price index (CPI) for the eighth month of the year it would reach around 10.3% in its annual variationaccording to Portafolio surveyed with various analysts.
(Greedflation: companies use hikes to generate excessive profits).
This Monday the National Administrative Department of Statistics (Dane) will make official the results of the CPI for the eighth month of the year 2022. And the latest monthly survey of expectations of economic analysts carried out by the Banco de la República revealed that 34 market players, between banks, brokerage firms and corporations, among others, they expect the price variation in the month to be, on average, 0.50%, with a minimum range of 0.36% and a maximum of 0.69%.
Jesús Sarmiento, an analyst at Fedesarrollo, assured that the average data that the market throws up according to the Issuer’s monthly survey “would take annual inflation to levels of 10.30%”, and also assured that from the center of thought expects for August “a monthly inflation of 0.59% that would bring annual inflation to 10.37%, which would be driven by a greater annual contribution of the components of services, regulated and goods respectively.”
Additionally, Fedesarrollo recently presented its Financial Opinion Survey, and in it, analysts consider that inflation will be at 10.30%.
From the commission agent Casa de Bolsa, the annual figure is also expected to reach 10.30%, after a variation of 0.53%. According to Juan David Ballén, director of analysis and strategy of the entity, in annual terms inflation would rise slightly, but he clarified that he does not identify a component that has presented an unusual shock for the month.
(Informality and low wages, employment challenges in Latin America).
Also in line with the market and the forecast of 10.30% is BBVA Research. “This month, food inflation will still play a leading role, but it will begin to show more moderation compared to previous monthly results, generating less pressure on the final result,” said Laura Peña, an economist at BBVA Research for Colombia.
According to Peña, however, the transfer of costs to the restaurant and hotel division “will be reflected in persistent inflation in this division.” In basic inflation, he said, there will be a continuation of pressures on tradable goods, through the prices of vehicles and goods associated with personal and household hygiene.
Additionally, BBVA estimates that the education division will show some pressure during the month of August, due to the increase in prices in higher education. The entity projects a monthly variation of 0.52% for the IPC.
(Products of the family basket that have risen and fallen in price the most).
Slightly above is the projection of Scotiabank Colpatria: an inflation of 0.54%, for the month that for the year would accelerate to 10.31%.
“This is basically still pressured by a food issue, which is still quite high; we are additionally seeing an acceleration in housing and public services data, along with a scenario in which prices that are affected by the exchange rate are also rising significantly,” said Sergio Olarte, chief economist at Scotiabank Colpatria. .
Andrés Langebaek, director of economic studies at Grupo Bolívar Davivienda, assured that from the institution’s calculations it is thought that inflation would go from 10.21% to 10.35% after knowing the figure for August.
“The reason this time is not so much food, which should moderate its growth, but inflation without food. We are very concerned about the behavior that rents and utility rates have been having,” Langebaek said in this regard.
In line with this, the entity expects inflation without food to go from 7.2% to 7.4%.
A higher forecast
Although 10.3% seems to be the market consensus compared to the data that the Dane will announce next Monday, for some entities inflation could move higher. From BTG Pactual, for example, the forecast is 0.64% for the monthly figure, which would leave inflation at 10.44% in annual terms.
Other positions are less optimistic, such as that of Carolina Monzón, manager of Economic Research at Itaú Colombia, who expects a monthly variation of 0.61%higher than that seen in the same month last year, for a new rise in the general data to 10.6%.
“This would be driven not only by the food component, but also by important variations in restaurants, and also the housing sector, which is following an indexation process, also transportation, and a key element in the month of August will be the component of education, where we could already begin to see the price of tuition for the second half of the year”, he assured.
Likewise, according to the economist, other components such as clothing, entertainment and other services could be much more contained for the month.
Outlook towards the end of the year
Even without knowing the data for August, several of the analysts forecast that inflation will close the year still in two digits.
At Scotiabank, for example, “they continue to think” that inflation may end this year at close to 10.2% or 10.3% and begin to slowly fall in 2023.
BBVA expects headline inflation to be 10%, after peaking in October. “This would be moderated by a decrease in food inflation, but it would continue with some additional pressure from core inflation,” Peña said.
From Grupo Bolívar – Davivienda, Langebaek maintains that in the rest of the year there would be no relief in inflation without food. He also believes that the maximum would arrive in October, and that as of November less pressure could be seen, explained by food.
Laura Lucia Becerra Elejalde
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