“In addition to the above, for the next decision the probability has increased that it will be carried out with only 4 of the 5 members in the absence of an appointment, which would lead to the governor – who has spoken in favor of a larger cut – exercise your casting vote,” the report noted.
On December 31, Irene Espinosa left office as deputy governor of Banxico and President Claudia Sheinbaum has not named anyone to replace her.
In a morning conference in December, Shienbaum said that this election will be carried out by the Secretary of the Treasury, Rogelio Ramírez de la O.
In the event that there are two members of the Governing Board who vote to lower the rate by 25 points and two other members who vote to lower it by 50 points, it will be the vote of Governor Victoria Rodríguez that will tip the balance.
In late December, Deputy Governor Jonathan Heath noted that Banxico “could discuss a rate cut of 25 or 50 basis points in its next decision in February 2025.”
The next meeting of the Bank of Mexico will be on February 6.
With this change in interest rate forecasts, Banxico is expected to close the year with a rate of 7.75% from the 8% previously estimated.
“We consider that the main upside risks are the expectation of fewer cuts by the Fed, as well as volatility in financial markets and the imposition of tariffs by Trump due to his upward pressure on prices,” the bank said.
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