() –– The political return of President-elect Donald Trump caused former Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro and his supporters to celebrate that victory as if it were theirs.
In many ways, nowhere was Trump’s political strategy more rigorously reflected than in Brazil. Now reactivated, Bolsonaro’s partisan base has set its sights on the 2026 elections and sees Trump’s resurgence as proof that a similar return could occur in Brazil.
Although he was banned from running until 2030Bolsonaro congratulated Trump in a series of videos and publications in which he compared their trajectories and said that he hoped that Trump’s return to power would inspire Brazil “to complete our mission.”
Over the years, Bolsonaro earned the nickname “Trump of the tropics” and both built parallel legacies: each faces legal trials, have suffered assassination attempts, and both placed their families in positions of political prominence.
At Trump’s party at Mar-a-Lago on election night, Donald Trump Jr. posed for a photo with his Brazilian counterpart, former congressman Eduardo Bolsonaro. On Wednesday, Eduardo told Brazil that “as things go for the United States, things go for Brazil.”
An axis of Bolsonaro’s strategy has been his alliance with prominent American conservatives, a task led by his son Eduardo. Since at least 2018, Eduardo has frequently traveled to the United States to cultivate relationships with figures such as former Trump adviser Steve Bannon and American Conservative Union President Matt Schlapp.
His initial meeting with Bannon, who later served as an advisor to Bolsonaro’s campaign, cemented a lasting alliance that gave Bolsonaro’s movement access to tactics tested in the United States.
“What Bolsonaro represents is what the people of Brazil represent,” Bannon said in February. “He won his second term just like President Trump. They stole it from Trump. They stole it from Bolsonaro. And the reason it has momentum is because it represents what the people believe.”
As Eduardo expanded his ties, other Brazilian legislators began accompanying him on his tours of the United States, attending meetings with Republicans such as Marjorie Taylor Greene and George Santos. Other visits included a conservative summit at the United Nations and a meeting with the Organization of American States, where rising Brazilian congressman Nikolas Ferreira addressed court overreach and “political and judicial revenge” against Bolsonaro supporters following the Jan. 8 insurrection in Brazil.
Part of this alignment strategy is already working. In September, Florida Republican Congresswoman María Elvira Salazar asked that all visa applications submitted by Brazil’s Supreme Court judges be denied on the grounds that their decisions violate freedom of expression protections in Brazil for U.S. citizens like Elon Musk.
Bolsonaro’s movement extended beyond rhetoric and attempted to build a lasting political infrastructure to support the strategy. Eduardo spearheaded the creation of CPAC Brazil, a Brazilian adaptation of the US Conservative Political Action Conference. With appearances by American conservatives such as Bannon, Donald Trump Jr., and Gettr founder Jason Miller, CPAC Brazil took up the themes of nationalism, family values, and opposition to globalism, and cemented these principles within Brazilian conservatism. The talking points of “God, Gays and Guns” translate easily to a Brazilian audience already accustomed to hearing them from American politicians.
Eduardo also co-founded the Conservative-Liberal Institute in 2019, an organization that mostly co-sponsored events, but says its goal is to become “the country’s leading institute for political education.” On the other hand, Eduardo himself offers online courses for first-time political candidates and local leaders. For $50, you can learn the basics of political theory, how to win an election, and how to increase your social media following.
The influential politician model took off in Brazil, and the far-right has skillfully developed a vast network of conservative media personalities who amplify their message on various platforms where they often dismiss critical media outlets as disseminators of “fake news.” ”. Like Trump supporters, Bolsonaro supporters created a self-sustaining media ecosystem.
Bolsonaro’s skepticism toward democratic institutions was another hallmark of his alignment with Trump’s tactics. Throughout the 2022 election cycle, he questioned the integrity of electronic voting in Brazil, igniting tensions that erupted in the Jan. 8 insurrection, when his supporters stormed Brazil’s Supreme Court, Congress and presidential offices, a clear mirage of the Jan. 6 riot at the U.S. Capitol. Joined.
From there, the confrontation with the Brazilian judiciary only intensified. In recent years, the Supreme Court has increased its powers and leveraged precedents established by the January 8 investigations to expand its authority over cases involving political extremism, disinformation and threats to democratic order. While some consider this essential to protecting Brazilian democracy, Bolsonaro’s allies denounce it as judicial overreach aimed at silencing conservative voices.
For Bolsonaro supporters, the increase in the authority of the Supreme Court further exhibits their “political revenge” narrative. In November 2023, Ferreira and other Bolsonaro allies demonstrated against these alleged judicial excesses while in Washington and described the actions of the judiciary as an offensive against freedom of expression and political freedoms.
Casting the Supreme Court as a political adversary has become a central point in Bolsonaro’s narrative, as he aggravates his supporters with calls for international oversight as they look toward 2026.
But that path is fraught with challenges: Bolsonaro still cannot hold office so, unless a court reverses that decision, it makes no sense. Institutions have tightened rules on disinformation, limiting its influence on the Internet. Investigations into the Brasilia attacks are also ongoing, putting legal pressure on him, his family and his allies.
For example, in February the police confiscated his passport and, despite Bolsonaro he told Brazil who hopes to see Trump “soon,” his defense team is expected to only ask to get him back “if and when” an explicit invitation to Trump’s inauguration comes.
Even if Bolsonaro does not return to the Planalto Palace in the near future, he continues to campaign as if his name were on the ballot and, in a sense, it is. His chosen successor could inherit much of his base and bring Bolsonaro’s influence into the race against a broad leftist coalition.
It is unclear whether this path will lead to the resurgence they envision or whether it will fade with changing public sentiment and legal pressures. But for now, they are willing to test the limits of a comeback inspired by their most influential ally.
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