ANALYSIS | Trump’s trade threats put the world on a precipice and could say a lot about his second term

() – World chaos returns through social networks.

Between 2017 and 2021, Donald Trump kept the world on edge, waiting for his next move, trying to decipher whether his bluster was an appearance, an opening for an agreement or a break with history, while he sowed chaos to unbalance his adversaries. .

Those days came again, almost eight weeks before he begins his second term.

The president-elect’s online threats Monday of new trade wars with Canada, Mexico and China turned the United States once again into an agent of instability, one that can throw a foreign friend or foe into crisis in an instant.

Trump said the two American neighbors in the Western Hemisphere would be punished if they did not stop the flow of undocumented migration and fentanyl across their borders. And he demanded that China also stop drug shipments.

His first major global uproar since winning re-election raised the following questions that will help define the character of his second term.

Is Trump serious about massive tariff hikes that could raise prices for American consumers right into his second presidency, which he won in part because voters were so frustrated with inflation and the costs of housing and groceries?

Or is the president-elect giving free rein to his opinion that life and politics are one big real estate deal? And is he establishing an extreme position to create leverage for deals that might be modest but burnish his dealmaking brand?

There is a third possibility: that Trump feels liberated by his electoral victory and is determined to carry his America First project beyond a first term in which his most volatile instincts were often curbed by establishment aides.

Trump believes he has the mandate for big change

Many of Trump’s voters deeply disdain the political, economic, business and diplomatic systems that they believe have harmed them economically and serve American and global elites. They want their MAGA hero to take them down, without having much idea what would replace them.

Trump could, therefore, simply be creating headlines to show his followers that he is already fighting for their interests. Or you might have something more radical in mind. The second path could take the United States and the world into risky territory. The idea that he could go all out could drag the United States into economy-wrecking trade wars and trigger dangerous clashes in a world that is much more volatile since he left office four years ago.

“There are plenty of examples (of) Trump’s verbal threats forcing and coercing action from other parties, especially when it comes to foreign countries,” said Pete Seat, former White House spokesman for President George W. Bush, on “ News Central” this Tuesday. “The real question is what will happen in these next two months.” If the three nations make significant moves, Seat said, “Trump may back off on this. Otherwise, we are all going to see price increases.”

The question of whether Trump is faking it or planning to go all out with a revolutionary presidency is not limited to trade.

He has ambitious plans to gut the federal government with a new effort co-chaired by Elon Musk. But going all-in would cause enormous political and economic disruption that could backfire. Similarly, Trump promised a mass deportation of up to 10 million immigrants without documentation of legal stay in the country. But such an operation, which would cost billions of dollars, could sink the agricultural sector and would also have a high political cost.

This equation is reflected abroad. Some in the West fear that Trump will pull the United States out of NATO or refuse to defend an alliance member attacked by Russia. Would the president-elect really blow up the most successful military alliance in history, or is he just trying to wring more defense spending from some of the lagging European powers?

In other words, does Trump have in mind a presidency driven by spectacle and brinkmanship that, like the first, will achieve incremental change? Or is he really, as some of his followers want, trying to tear it all down?

Trump announces 25% tariffs for Mexico and Canada from his first day in office

Trump’s sudden warning Monday to impose 25% tariffs on Canadian and Mexican imports, with an additional 10% increase on existing tariffs on Chinese goods, was the latest sign that the president-elect plans to quickly use his muscle. .

It caused a stir in Ottawa, and Prime Minister Justin Trudeau got on the phone with Trump for what he insisted was a “good call.” Within hours, Trump had caught the attention of Mexico’s new president, Claudia Sheinbaum, who warned of retaliation similar to Trump’s tariffs starting on January 20.

The president-elect’s gambit created an immediate measuring stick for judging whether his second presidency will be an attempt to fuel much deeper disruptions.

There are no guarantees that Canada, Mexico and China will back down immediately.

Still, overdose deaths from fentanyl and other synthetic opioids are declining. And Trump’s promises to impose hardline immigration policies are likely to deter many migrants from approaching the US southern border. Therefore, Trump could create an illusion of change to cover up a decision to reverse if he needs to.

Trump’s trade war rhetoric is a reminder that in his worldview, the United States has few friends, only adversaries against whom it can choose to win or lose. According to this view, it is okay for a large, powerful country like the United States to use its natural advantages to pressure its smaller neighbors, even if they are allies.

But Trump must also evaluate his opponents, both north and south of the border.

Trudeau is politically weakened, and his party is at risk of losing next year’s general election to Conservative Party leader Pierre Poilievre. The prime minister therefore has a huge incentive to avoid a trade war that could wreak havoc on the Canadian economy. Both Canada and Mexico depend on their trade with the United States due to their geographic realities and may have no choice but to make concessions. But Sheinbaum is new to the job, has plenty of political capital and may be willing to stand up to perceived harassment from a new American president.

China’s case is different from Trump’s threats to Canada and Mexico. The president-elect significantly toughened policy toward America’s new superpower rival in his first term. A trade war led to a deal, which Trump again welcomed, but which largely dissolved during the pandemic and after China refused to buy the huge quantities of agricultural products that the then-president said it would buy.

Trade is just one source of friction between Washington and Beijing, and many members of Trump’s team – including Senator Marco Rubio, his nominee for secretary of state – believe China represents an existential threat to US security and the economy. USA. So this could be the first salvo in a broader and more intense period of confrontation across the Pacific, rather than a mere ruse to lure President Xi Jinping to the negotiating table.

Trump’s early turn against his neighbors will put other allies on notice, especially in Europe, where leaders are preparing for their own trade showdown with Trump as well as dealing with tensions over how to end the war in Ukraine.

The initial reaction to Trump’s attack on Canada and Mexico suggests that many observers view his outburst as a negotiating tactic. A Trump transition official told this Tuesday: “We know what works.” In his first term, Trump used the threat of a trade war to force Canada and Mexico to the table to renegotiate the North American Free Trade Agreement. The new deal between the United States, Mexico and Canada was touted by Trump as a triumph, but it did not fundamentally reshape the global economy or significantly improve a hollowed-out American industrial base that Trump promised to revive in his 2016 and 2024 campaigns.

It is a measure of his desire to foment discord that Trump is threatening to undo one of the achievements of his first term.

“What Donald Trump is proposing as an alpha disruptor is disrupting the largest trading market in the world,” Virginia Democratic Rep. Gerry Connolly told on Tuesday.

Are you serious?

Thanks to the expectations created by Trump, the world will soon know.