A curfew will be imposed in all provinces on 20 and 21 November for the census. The last census was carried out in 1997, and subsequent ones have been postponed or cancelled several times due to violence or internal conflict. Iraqi academic: “A country’s policies are guided by these figures” and the sectarian and confessional component plays a key role.
Milan () – A process that has been awaited for 27 years, in a country that has experienced first-hand some of the most dramatic events in the recent history of the Middle East, from the war launched by the United States in 2003 to overthrow dictator Saddam Hussein to the occupation, the civil war between different souls and the invasion of the Islamic State (EI, formerly ISIS), with its load of death and devastation caused by jihadist madness. That is why the national census announced for next November by Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia Al-Sudani – with a curfew on the 20th and 21st of that month in all provinces – constitutes a crucial step for the future.
An ‘important’ step
Saad Salloum, a journalist and associate professor of political science at al-Mustanṣiriyya University in Baghdad, one of the most prestigious universities in the capital, confirmed to the importance of a decision necessary to establish internal balances. It is a fundamental step for a reality in which the sectarian and confessional component determines political and institutional life and has been, both in the past and today, an element of strong tension and conflict. “It is undoubtedly very important,” he explains, “that Iraq can finally carry out a global census of the population for the first time in 27 years.” Moreover, he continues, “the government and the international community have no idea of the demographic weight and the way in which the Iraqi population is distributed,” on which the programs and initiatives related to the most varied sectors are based: from education to the economy, including investments and the balance of internal forces. “It is essential,” he warns, “to determine the distribution and the number of young people, women, children,” as well as how many have an occupation and the world of work or schools.
A country’s policies are guided by these numbers, as are the parties and institutions that must organize the next elections in four years’ time “with the votes of a new generation and the growing weight that the world of youth has in decision-making.” The last general census was carried out in 1997 in 15 provinces of the country, excluding the three in the north that formed the autonomous region of Kurdistan. At a meeting chaired by Prime Minister Al-Sudani, the ongoing preparations were discussed and a number of decisions were adopted to facilitate the preparation and training process.
Wars and internal conflicts
In the past, the population census was normally carried out every ten years, but since 1997 it has been postponed several times, most notably in 2010, when preparations were already underway, due to wars, internal conflicts and the struggle for control of territories. Moreover, in a country with fragile balances like Iraq, a census is a complex and delicate process, the outcome of which may depend on the distribution of power. In fact, it determines, albeit indirectly, sectarian and ethnic quotas based on the distribution of the population. It also plays an important role in the current conflict between the federal government and the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) over demographic affiliations in disputed regions such as Kirkuk, which is rich in oil and subject to intense dispute.
In preparation for the census, Iraqi authorities signed a memorandum of understanding with the United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA) in July. The UN agency noted the importance of the initiative, saying that it “plays a crucial role in providing Iraq with accurate demographic information, facilitating effective policymaking and promoting inclusive growth.” This is why international institutions are supporting a country that has experienced decades of conflict and sectarian violence but has in recent years been able to find – despite the difficulties – a certain stability. A slow process of rebirth, after the devastation of ISIS, for its 43 million inhabitants, which was also witnessed by the visit of Pope Francis in March 2021 on the pontiff’s first apostolic journey after the Covid-19 pandemic.
The diaspora
In Iraq, explains Salloum – the first Muslim to win the Zed Foundation Award for Human Solidarity, a prize awarded to people who have distinguished themselves in the field of protecting rights and freedoms – there has long been a conflict “between majority and minority”. However, there is “great uncertainty about the figures, depending on the components and the different groups” and the numbers we have today “do not correspond to reality”. That is why it is essential to carry out a new census – he insists – that provides a reliable map of Turkmen, Christians, Arabs, Sunnis, Shiites and Yazidis, of the various components and souls”, on which “the balance of powers and their distribution” depends. All this is reflected in “political rights and parliament”, in a country where “the weight of the powers in play is a question of numbers”.
The last element, explains the academic, which will be important to verify thanks to the census scheduled for November is the number of Iraqis in the diaspora, those who in recent decades have fled abroad because of violence or to find new opportunities. It is a significant element for all the components of Iraq, but also and above all for the Christian minority, often persecuted. “All the factors involved are important,” he notes, “but one of the most discussed data is the exact number of Christians in the diaspora, those who have fled the country in recent years because of civil wars, the conflict with Iran in the 1980s, the American invasion in 2003 and Daesh.” [Isis]“At the moment we have a lot of people outside the country, who have left. A number so large that it almost forms two populations, one inside and one outside Iraq, and that is also an element that needs to be carefully evaluated – concludes Salloum – in order to have a clear idea of the reality and how many millions of Iraqis have left their land.”
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