Amazon and MercadoLibre, the beneficiaries of the Mexican tariff plan

At the beginning of the year, Mexico imposed a 19% tax on imports through courier services from countries with which it does not have a free trade agreement, including China.

Imports from the United States and Canada, Mexico’s partners in the T-MEC regional trade agreement, are exempt for purchases whose value is less than $50. Items between $50 and $117 from the United States and Canada are subject to a 17% tariff.

“The policy seems aimed mainly at Asian companies such as Shein and Temu, which previously benefited from exemptions on imports below $50,” Itaú BBA analysts wrote in a note sent to the media.

The measures come amid growing trade tensions with US President-elect Donald Trump, who in his campaign promised to impose heavy tariffs on Mexico and Canada, among other countries, and doubled down on the threat on Tuesday, announcing “very serious” tariffs on two countries.

Trump has previously accused Mexico of being a backdoor for Chinese goods, which the Latin American country has denied. Even so, Mexican authorities recently launched the so-called “Operation Cleanup” to seize contraband products sent to the country from Asia.

According to the Itau BBA team, Amazon is the company that will gain the most from the changes, since around 30% of its products sold in Mexico come from the United States, while MercadoLibre brings around 15% from abroad, largely from China.

Although the tariffs will affect Mercado Libre products from the Asian nation, “the global effect should be positive in net terms” due to less competition, the analysts wrote.