Al-Qaeda’s succession plan put to the test

The death of al-Qaeda leader Ayman al-Zawahiri in a US airstrike is likely to test the terror group’s resolve and consistency, and possibly test long-drawn-out succession plans, just as he was apparently positioned to be the world’s foremost jihadi threat.

Recent intelligence assessments had warned that al-Qaida appeared to be benefiting from a period of relative stability within its leadership and that the group was taking advantage of the Taliban takeover of Afghanistan, with al-Qaida leadership communicating more freely than in the past.

“The international context is favorable for al-Qaeda,” said a United Nations report last month, further warning that al-Qaida “could ultimately become a greater source of targeted threat” than its rival, the Islamic State. .

Only a few former counterterrorism officials and analysts caution that while al Qaeda has also used its newfound freedom in Afghanistan to solidify its hierarchy and line of succession, there are serious questions about how well those plans can be put into motion, given geographic concerns. and the growing influence of the terror group’s African affiliates.

“This is a challenge for Al Qaeda,” he told the voice of america a former Western counterterrorism official, speaking on condition of anonymity to discuss recent intelligence assessments.

In particular, the official cited concerns from various intelligence agencies around the world about the status of Zawahiri’s heir apparent, Saif al-Adel.

Al-Qaeda and Iran

“He is in Iran… Are the Iranians letting him go?” the former official asked. “It’s kind of hard being the leader of Al Qaeda while you’re stuck in a gilt cage.”

Al-Qaeda’s number three, Abd al-Rahman al-Maghrebi, the terror group’s general manager and head of its media operations, is also believed to be in Iran, along with several lower-ranking Al-Qaeda officials. Qaeda.

And it’s not just about al-Adel and al-Maghribi.

The proliferation of al-Qaida officials in Tehran once led former US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo to accuse Iran of becoming al-Qaida’s new operational headquarters.

However, other US diplomatic and intelligence officials have been more cautious in their assessments, portraying the relationship between Tehran and al Qaeda as one of convenience and often transactional in nature.

In any case, some analysts see the connection with Iran as a problem.

“It creates dilemmas,” said Aaron Zelin, a fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy who specializes in jihadism. “[Hay] issues of Iranian legitimacy or influence.”

Rise of African subsidiaries

So too, there are potential challenges if al-Qaida turns to the next in line to replace Zawahiri: Yazid Mebrak with al-Qaida in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM) and Ahmed Diriye with al-Qaida’s Somali affiliate al-Shabab.

“That would also be unprecedented where senior leadership would move from the historical sanctuary of the Afghanistan-Pakistan region to different parts of Africa,” Zelin told the VOA.

“Many of those groups, while paying lip service to some sort of global struggle, have historically focused primarily on their local insurgencies or regional conflicts rather than anything related to the West,” he said.

However, despite a longstanding local or regional focus, African affiliates have been growing in power and influence.

Over the past two years, intelligence shared by UN member states warned that AQIM had become a logistics hub for al Qaeda affiliates in Mali, while also finding ways to supply, and possibly influence, other militant groups.

Al-Shabab’s rise has been even more pronounced, with one UN member state warning that it has morphed from affiliate to benefactor, providing financial support to Al-Qaeda’s central leadership.

A new caliphate?

At the same time, US military and intelligence officials warn that al Qaeda’s Somali affiliate is becoming more ambitious, with a growing appetite for territory and to take on Western targets.

“I think Africa is likely to be the home of al Qaeda’s next emirate-style experiment… based on the prevalence of strong militant movements in Africa alongside weak states and frustrated populations that are open to a variety of alternatives. ”, she recently told the VOA Daveed Gartenstein-Ross, counterterrorism analyst and CEO of threat analysis firm Valens Global.

Still, Gartenstein-Ross, speaking before al-Qaeda leader Ayman al-Zawahiri’s death, said a stronger and more prominent African affiliate would not have to be home to al-Qaeda’s central leadership.

“Al-Qaeda’s targeting system is not a traditional command and control system,” he said. “His ideal tends to be the centralization of strategy with the decentralization of action.”

Zawahiri’s Legacy

On Monday night, a senior US administration official said Zawahiri’s death deals al Qaeda “a significant blow…and will degrade the group’s ability to operate, including against the US homeland.”

But some analysts and former officials are cautious.

“The loss of Zawahiri is not the end of Al Qaeda,” Katherine Zimmerman, a fellow at the American Enterprise Institute, told the VOA through a text message.

“Despite how uninspiring his tirades were to many, he successfully led the organization past the death of its founder, Osama bin Laden, and the challenge of the Islamic State,” he said. “He and top al Qaeda leaders have already planned his death, and many capable people are ready to take the lead.”

Other analysts argue that Al Qaeda, although decentralized and dependent on affiliates, is still stronger than ever.

There are those, however, who disagree.

“There is a case against him that he was not a very inspiring leader, he was not a very dynamic leader,” the former Western counterterrorism official told the Times. VOAgiving a note of caution.

“If you subscribe to the theory that Zawahiri was not an effective leader, then you have a chance that a more inspiring leader will take over,” the official said.

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