After ten months of fierce fighting, what is the epilogue of the Battle of Bakhmut?

After ten months of bloody clashes between the Ukrainian Army and Wagner’s militiamen, Bakhmut is once again at the center of a communications battle between Moscow and kyiv. Ukraine admitted on Sunday May 21 that it now only controls “an insignificant part” from the city, but which continues advancing on other flanks.

“Although now we only control an insignificant part of Bakhmut, its defense is still important (…) We continue to advance on the flanks in the suburbs of Bakhmut,” Ukrainian ground forces commander Oleksandre Syrsky said on Telegram.

The head of the Russian mercenary group had claimed responsibility for the taking of the martyred city “in its entirety” in a video posted on his social networks. Yevgeny Prigozhin he appears surrounded by hooded soldiers carrying flags of the Russian Federation and its militia.

In open conflict with the Russian military hierarchy, Prigozhin used the occasion to once again criticize the Defense Ministry. “The operation to take Bakhmut lasted 224 days. (…) Here there was only Wagner”.

The latter reaffirmed on Sunday that he had conquered the city “to the last centimeter” within its “legal borders.” “There is not a single Ukrainian soldier in Bakhmut,” he said.

It is not the first time that private militia have claimed to have captured the war-torn city, but there are several indications that this could be a major turning point. For example, for the first time, Russian President Vladimir Putin congratulated the mercenary group and the Russian Army, according to a Kremlin statement.

“Thanks to the offensive actions of Wagner’s assault units, with the support of the artillery and aviation of Army Group South, the liberation of Artiomosvk has been completed,” the Russian Defense Ministry also confirmed, which in the past he has tended to qualify the triumphant declarations of Wagner’s boss.

“The Russians needed to announce a victory on the anniversary of the capture of Mariupol a year ago,” said General Dominique Trinquand, former head of the French military mission to the UN, referring to “contradictory” reports.

“There is nothing left” in Bakhmut

Although Ukraine has not officially recognized the fall of the Donbass city, the authorities admit that the situation is “critical” and that its troops have tactically withdrawn to the outskirts.

Asked about Bakhmut’s fate at the G7 summit in Japan on Sunday, a visibly concerned President Volodymyr Zelensky appeared to implicitly acknowledge the fortress city’s fall by downplaying any Russian success. “You must understand that there is nothing there,” he said, “today Bakhmut is only in our hearts.”

Ambiguous statements immediately clarified by the Ukrainian Presidency. “The president denied Bakhmut’s capture,” defended his spokesperson, Sergei Nykyforov.

Immediately afterwards, the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense claimed to have “partially surrounded” the town thanks to its territorial gains on the flanks, as a way of definitively closing this moment of hesitation in communication from Kiev.

“Bakhmut is not occupied by Russia today,” Zelenski said then without explaining his words, assuring a press conference from Hiroshima that he could not share “the tactical opinions” of his General Staff.

“There are no misunderstandings. I fully understand what is happening in Bakhmut. And we all clearly understand why it is happening,” he said, adding to the confusion.

A peaceful city of 70,000 before the war, Bakhmut is now in ruins. Of relative strategic value, according to multiple military experts, the city has become the epicenter of the fighting in Ukraine since last August.

After seizing the neighboring city of Soledar earlier this year, Russia has made it its number one military target, with the ambition of opening the way to other cities in the Donbass.

After Bakhmut, the Russians “could go further. They could go to Kramatorsk, they could go to Sloviansk, the road would be clear” for them “to other cities in Ukraine,” Zelensky warned in an interview with the US network ” broadcast in March.

Ukrainian “opportunism”

But for Moscow, the issue is above all political. It is about finally being able to claim victory after a series of humiliating defeats, whatever the cost in human lives.

On the front line, Wagner’s mercenaries, often poorly equipped and poorly trained, have been sent by the thousands to certain death to break down the Ukrainian defense, which will eventually be exhausted by relentless waves of Russian attacks.

“Bakhmut will not be taken tomorrow, because there is strong resistance, shelling, the meat grinder is in action,” Prigozhin commented in February, referring to heavy losses on the battlefield.

In early May, the US Pentagon spokesman, John Kirby, estimated that 100,000 Russian soldiers had been killed or wounded since December 2022, the majority in Bakhmut.

Although most of the city has been in Russian hands for several months, Ukraine has managed to regain the initiative in recent days, achieving a two-kilometer advance on the front line. This strategy aims to fix the Russian forces to give them room for maneuver in other areas where they can launch counteroffensives.

By advancing on the flanks, as it now intends, the Ukrainian Army is giving itself the opportunity to encircle Wagner’s militiamen. “In the center, Wagner has taken Bakhmut while the Russian Army has withdrawn to the flanks. The Ukrainians have seized an opportunity here. War also consists of adapting to the circumstances of the moment,” General Trinquand analyzes.

Although the last few hours have undoubtedly marked an important stage in the course of the clashes in Donbass, the epilogue of the Bakhmut battle is not yet fully written.

This article was adapted from its original in French.