admit Sweden to NATO or move closer to Putin

During the election campaign – shortened to curb an already poorly organized opposition – Erdogan used his role in NATO to project the image of a strong leader that has accompanied him in the last two decades. Getting muscle in international forums has allowed the Istanbulian to revalidate his position, despite the runaway inflation that has plagued its population for months and the catastrophic earthquakes that ended more than 50,000 lives and exposed the government’s forecast failures.

Now that, with the vote of a 52% of the Turks, his mandate is confirmed for five more years, Erdogan does not need to surprise any electorate. Probably, his diplomacy returns to pragmatism and versatility that Turkish foreign relations have characterized during the last decades. During the next five years, the president will have to alleviate the instability at home by navigating between the economic dependence on Russia and cordiality with the West.

Good relations with the Atlantic bloc go through unblock Sweden from joining NATO. Just as he did with Finland, Erdogan must ratify the entry of Stockholm to the alliance and remove the blockade that, as a member state of the organization, exercised over the Scandinavian country. Although Türkiye has relied on Sweden gives protection to members of the Kurdistan Workers’ Partythis has been nothing but a pretext for Erdogan to wait until after the elections.

However, Ankara will want something in return for giving the green light to Stockholm’s accession: weapons. In his call this Monday, Biden offered Erdogan the long-awaited F-16 fighters if he lifted the blockade on the Scandinavian country. Although the Turkish president did not rule on the matter, there are several indications that the negotiations are imminent – according to an analysis of The New York Timesthe formal entry of Sweden will take place “in time for the alliance’s annual summit in July”—.

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[La oposición turca denuncia irregularidades y agresiones físicas en las votaciones presidenciales]

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On Monday, the Swedish Ministry of Foreign Affairs told Reuters that the chancellors of Sweden and Türkiye will meet “shortly” to discuss Stockholm’s long-delayed bid for NATO membership. Besides, andThis week the US Secretary of State, Anthony Blinkenwill go to Stockholm within a visit to the Nordic countries and within the framework of the rNATO Foreign Ministers meeting in Oslo. This will possibly be a forum in which the upcoming negotiations with Turkey are discussed.

On the other hand, Erdogan is expected to continue to fight for Ankara’s predominant place on the international chessboard. Over the past year, Erdogan has articulated a certain dialogue between Moscow and kyiv from across the Black Sea. The achievements have been notable, especially the peace negotiations and the signing of an initiative that has enabled a maritime corridor for the export of Ukrainian cereal grain.

But Türkiye’s referee role It is not essential: Erdogan has influence if NATO entrusts him to mediate, as with the grain deal. But “Russia can negotiate directly with NATO if it wants to,” he tells Guardian Ziya Meral, of the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI).

Furthermore, Turkey does not have sufficient legitimacy to mediate between its northern neighbors because, under the table, Ankara has been feeding off energy, trade and injections of Russian currencies. Thus, although Erdogan has not deprived himself of send military drones to Ukraine, has also not accepted apply the sanctions Westerners to Moscow. According to Emre Peker of the Eurasia Group, “Ankara will maintain strong diplomatic and economic ties with Moscow, while remaining a critical but difficult NATO ally“.