a town left in a catastrophic and endless conflict

In recent days, the UN made a request for aid to donor countries for an amount of 4,500 million euros. A similar request in 2022 had managed to raise half of the necessary funds. Meanwhile, in the territory the fighting continues, the truce seems distant and the economic crisis worsens. Child soldiers, the collapse of the GDP and little resources feed misery.

Milan () – An aid plan of almost 4.5 billion euros from donor countries, to try to alleviate a nation hit by years of war, poverty and indifference from the international community, while civilians continue to die in the territory. And children are exploited as weapons in a relentless recruitment campaign that no awareness policy has been able to counter. The crisis in Yemen, where a war that is as bloody as it is forgotten is being waged, does not seem to end and not even the efforts of the UN to reach an agreement have had any effect so far. The Houthis, rebel militias close to Iran, continue to fight against government forces recognized by the international community and supported by the Arab coalition led by Saudi Arabia. The latter has been accused in the past for its incursions that have affected innocent victims, including minors, schools and hospitals. Even if the mediation efforts – which so far resulted in a fragile truce that lasted a few months last year – bear fruit, the population is destined to suffer the consequences of the conflict and humanitarian disaster in the coming years.

A crisis with no way out

In April of last year, signs of hope appeared when the UN special envoy Hans Grundberg -in office since September 2021- managed to wrest a two-month truce from both parties, which was renewed for another period, and the start of the negotiations for a long-term agreement. On the government front, Riyadh and Abu Dhabi had replaced the decades-long leadership of President Abdu Rabbu Mansur Hadi with an eight-member council (PLC). However, the truce definitely expired on October 2 and was never renewed; the parties continued to fight while accusing each other of the failure of the negotiations. What remains is a conflict that has claimed almost 400,000 lives since 2014 and that, according to the UN, caused the “worst humanitarian crisis in the world”, on which the Covid-19 had “devastating” effects. Millions of people are on the brink of starvation and children – 11,000 have already died in the conflict – will suffer the consequences for decades. There are more than three million internally displaced people, most of whom live in poverty, go hungry and are exposed to epidemics, especially cholera.

In the last eight years, the situation at the military level has remained practically unchanged. The Houthis, better known as Ansar Allah (AA), rule two thirds of the population and control one third of the territory. The hottest front is the Marib governorate, where pro-Iranian rebels launched an offensive that was met with government resistance, however. To maintain power, the Houthis do not hesitate to resort to an authoritarian regime, which does not respect any human right and represses dissent through imprisonment, executions – even against minors, who often continue to be used as child soldiers, as is also the case in the other side – and summary trials. There is no freedom of expression, journalists are detained and punished, women have their rights and freedoms restricted, including the obligation of a male “guardian” or a “dress code”.

Riyadh and Abu Dhabi, divergent interests

Conditions are no better on the opposite front, where in recent years there has been a fracture within the Arab alliance between Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates due to divergent interests and support for the separatist movement in the south. The conflicting objectives also had serious consequences in the conflict scenario, in which the progressive disengagement of the United States already played an important role, already under the presidency of Republican Donald Trump, which later continued with his Democratic successor Joe Biden. One of the signs that marked this change was the attack by the Houthis on Abu Dhabi in January 2022, a blow to the heart that led the Saudis and the Emiratis to self-defense, aware that they could no longer count on Washington’s protective umbrella. This turn of events was further confirmed after multiple missile and drone attacks from territory controlled by pro-Iranian rebels in the direction of Saudi Arabia, some of which targeted strategically important oil facilities for Riyadh. Meanwhile, the presidential “council” for the transition period (the PLC) was created, whose objective is to guarantee a common front between the interests of Abu Dhabi and Riyadh against the Houthis. However, in recent months it has also been characterized by divisions, warring factions and divergent interests that do not help dialogue or mediation.

The consequences of war

Years of violence and tensions caused immense suffering to an economically, socially and humanly depleted population. The balance is aggravated by the blockade of some of the country’s main ports, such as Hodeida, where heavy fighting took place that ended up paralyzing trade, supplies and even aid itself. One of the few actors that in recent years seems to have strengthened its presence, and its interests, is China, which is watching Aden and its surroundings with great attention, with a view to continuing to strengthen the “Silk Road”. With the war, the GDP plummeted by 50%, while the average annual income per capita is about 600 euros, less than half that before the war. The financial crisis also caused the payment of salaries to be frozen for some 1.2 million public employees, many of whom received half-salary payments several months apart. Added to the economic damage is environmental damage, with a series of natural catastrophes in recent history causing severe consequences, particularly powerful floods that submerged entire territories. And the trend, experts warn, looks set to get worse.

The majority of Yemenis are mired in exhaustion, despair and misery, and even if a peace agreement is reached – which is by no means assured – in the short or medium term, the population will continue to be caught in the socio-economic devastation and the hostile climate. In recent months, Grundberg, the UN envoy, has multiplied his efforts and tried to bring the fronts closer with regular trips to Riyadh, Oman, the Emirates and even Moscow. A first step could be represented by the start of direct negotiations between the Houthi and Saudi Arabia, recognition and legitimization to which the pro-Tehran rebels themselves have long aspired after having maintained secret contacts in recent years. All this, however, without hiding -or ignoring- the role of the Council, which still today represents the internationally recognized part in the complicated puzzle of Yemen. The UN request for more than 4,000 million in aid by 2023 is a sign that the humanitarian crisis is worsening, but resources are scarce and the taps are running dry, adding to other global crises such as the earthquake in Syria and Turkey. In 2022, the request for a similar amount only met 52% of the target, while the people continue to suffer and their leaders seem increasingly distant, and less interested, in reaching a compromise.

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