June 23. () –
The far-right National Rally party would be the clear winner of the legislative elections to be held on June 30 and July 7 in two rounds in France with 36 percent of the vote, well ahead of the left-wing New Popular Front ( 27 percent) and the centrist coalition that supports President Emmanuel Macron (20 percent), according to a poll published this Sunday.
The National Rally would thus obtain between 250 and 280 deputies, close to the absolute majority of 289 seats, according to the projection of the Elabe poll for the BFM TV network and the newspaper ‘La Tribune Dimanche’.
The New Popular Front would achieve between 150 and 170 seats, while the parties of the current presidential majority would be in third place with between 90 and 110 seats, far from the current 245.
The dissidents of the conservative party The Republicans opposed to a pact with the National Rally would obtain 10 percent of the votes and would obtain between 35 and 45 seats, below the current 62. The rest of the political forces would be divided between 10 and 12 seats.
Left-wing dissidents opposed to the New Popular Front do not reach 2 percent (2 percent), while Reconquista would achieve 1.5 percent. The extreme left would obtain 1 percent and the dissidents of the presidential field would obtain 0.5 percent of voting intention.
With these results, the president of the National Rally, Jordan Bardella, would not be eligible to be prime minister, since he promised that he would not run for office without an absolute majority. 58 percent of the population agrees with this position, according to the Elabe study.
The elections will have a significant increase in participation. 60 percent of people say they are “completely sure about going to vote,” according to the survey, that is, three points more than in the last legislative elections. Another 11 percent are “seriously thinking” about voting, so the total turnout could exceed 80 percent.
The study is based on 2,002 interviews with a representative sample of citizens of mainland France over 18 years of age. They were carried out online from June 19 to 21, 2024. They have a margin of error of between plus and minus 1.0 and 2.6 percentage points.
MACRON WILL REMAIN PRESIDENT
This Sunday the outgoing Prime Minister, Gabriel Attal, assured that Macron will continue to be the head of State “whatever the result” of the elections and thus responds to the leader of the National Rally, Marine Le Pen, who has urged the leader to resign after the elections.
“Whatever the result, the president will always be president. The only question is who will be the prime minister, what majority will govern,” Attal told ‘Le Parisien’.
On the other hand, former socialist president François Hollande has called on the leader of France Insoumise, Jean-Luc Mélenchon, to “step aside” if he wants to “do a service to the New Popular Front.”
“Jean-Luc Mélenchon, who two years ago could have been a possibility (for the Elysée), today, if he wants to be at the service of the New Popular Front, must step aside, let him be. In silence,” Hollande noted in a message published on his account on the social network X. Hollande is a candidate of the New Popular Front in Corrèze.
“There comes a time when we must be aware of what the general interest is. (…) Do we want to make the left win or do we want, on the contrary, to create conflict?” he asked.
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