The United Nations Future Summit fell short of its goal of increasing cooperation on major global challenges. The Pact for the Future, however, represents progress in reforming the Security Council, strengthening multilateralism and overcoming short-termism.
International cooperation tends to be most difficult when it is most needed. This week, international leaders flocked to New York for the Future Summit, summoned by United Nations member states in 2020, on the occasion of the organization’s 75th anniversary. The meeting’s agenda was as ambitious as its name suggests, with the goal of building consensus on issues such as peace and security, development, new technologies and the protection of future generations.
UN Member States agree on one point: in order to confront today’s global crises, it is necessary to do great improvements The United Nations is also deeply concerned about the multilateral system created in 1945. They are also acutely aware of the UN’s inability to stop or even de-escalate the wars raging in Sudan, Central Africa, Gaza, Ukraine and many other conflict zones. They admit that even after witnessing the devastation caused by COVID-19, they have still not prepared the world for the next pandemic. They recognise the need for swift and significant action to respond to the sovereign debt crisis, an intensifying climate crisis and the emergence of new technologies such as artificial intelligence and gene editing.
Unfortunately, the agreement on the need to fix the system does not extend to how to do it. After more than a year of laborious negotiations, a dramatic outcome was reached on Sunday morning, when Russia tried to stop (unsuccessfully) the approval of the Pact for the Future, the final document of the summit. Later that same day, Argentina denounced that the Pact was a “totalitarian agenda.” In reality, the document is largely a repetition of abstract terms already agreed upon. But amid the rhetoric, there are trends that can transform world politics and help lay the foundations for an international system capable of facing current and future challenges.
In the aftermath of two world wars and facing the risk of nuclear escalation, the architects of the UN designed a multilateral system that would allow a handful of major powers to guide the world toward peace and promote their own interests. But this model of global governance is not suited to today’s world, and especially to the more or less four billion people under 30 years of age. Even in a context of ongoing conflicts on several continents, war is no longer the only issue on the global agenda. In the face of pandemics, climate change, poverty, mass migration and technological catastrophes, effective and inclusive international action is needed.
Moreover, there are now many more countries with the power to influence international affairs. While the rise of China has attracted most attention, it is far from the only country with influence on the global agenda: as an example, we can cite Barbados’ efforts to reform the financial system international and those of the United Arab Emirates for the reconfiguration of the regional relations. Brazil will be host the G20 this year and a UN Climate Change Conference (COP30) next year, the outcome of which will be momentous.
What is new is that the Pact for the Future recognises this growing multipolarity with a concrete (albeit small) advance on one of the thorniest problems of the UN: the reform of the Security Council. After decades of false starts, the member states have unblocked the process by agreeing on a greater representation in the Council for “developing countries and small and medium-sized States.” The pact also commits member states to discuss limits on the “scope and use” of the veto power of the five permanent members of the Security Council, resolves to treat the representation of African countries as a “special case” and proposes an active role for the General Assembly in those cases where the Security Council fails to act.
Another trend highlighted by the negotiations is that businesses, NGOs, city governments and other actors now play an important role in responding to global challenges, forming networks that complement national governments. From climate change to issues such as AI and disinformation, non-state entities are increasingly influencing the issues that matter most to people. The Pact for the Future makes a commitment to strengthen partnerships “across all sectors of society,” including local and regional governments, the private sector, academic and scientific communities, faith-based organizations and indigenous peoples. The Global Digital Compact, which accompanies the Pact for the Future as an annex, notes the essential role of the private sector, the scientific community and civil society in achieving the agreed goals, and also expresses a commitment to cross-sectoral cooperation.
Finally, the summit noted the need for changes towards governance with a longer time horizon. Climate change, pension systems, investment in infrastructure and others long-term problems have causes and consequences that unfold over many generations. In the Declaration on Future Generations (a second annex to the compact), participants affirm a commitment to “protect the needs and interests of future generations,” similar to the first line of the UN Charter (1945), where its predecessors pledged to “save succeeding generations from the scourge of war.”
These lofty statements descend into practical territory in the form of concrete actions by various national governments determined to extend the horizon of decision-making. In 2015, the Welsh government was the first to do so. create the post of Commissioner for Future Generations; and this month, the European Commission appointed a commissioner for intergenerational equity. South Korea has also taken steps in this direction: its Constitutional Court ordered government to set more ambitious climate targets to protect future generations. To the extent that it acts as a catalyst for further change, perhaps future historians will see in the summit’s final document a transformative force similar to the Universal Declaration of Human Rights from 1948.
In his report of 2021 entitled “Our common agenda”, the UN Secretary General, Antonio Guterreswarned that depending on the choices we make, we could have “a future of perpetual crisis” or “a better, more sustainable and peaceful future for people and the planet.” Although the Pact for the Future is not the breakthrough that many had hoped for, it begins to outline the contours of a new system that may rectify the shortcomings of the old one.
Copyright: Project Syndicate, 2024.
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