A map of the European vineyard crisis due to climate change

Oct. 28 () –

A study published in Nature Communications has mapped for the first time the vulnerability of the more than 1,000 protected designations of origin of European wines to climate change.

The investigation, led by Ca’ Foscari University of Venice and Eurac Research, considers not only various climate scenarios, but also the regulatory frameworks and socioeconomic resources of each wine region.

Regarding the degree of climate change expected, geographical indications show that the greatest exposure will be in Romania, Croatia, Bulgaria, Italy and Hungary. The lowest levels of exposure were found in areas with a strong oceanic influence, such as Portugal or the Canary Islands, or located at higher latitudes, such as Belgium and the Netherlands.

If we consider the historical climatic conditions of traditional grape varieties in different regions, the southern areas of Europe They are particularly vulnerable to change. This sensitivity is due to strict regulations on the varieties that can be grown and the fact that these regions often approach the maximum temperature limits suitable for existing grape varieties.

The researchers also calculated the adaptive capacity of each geographical indication, that is, the possibility of deploying actions and resources capable of facing new climatic conditions, taking into account 15 indicators. Among the socioecological parameters analyzed are the structure of the population, financial solidity, the capacity of human resources and the natural characteristics of the territory that allow greater adaptability.

According to researchers, several groups of wine regions are emerging, that show different levels of vulnerability. Five percent of European wine regions face the most significant risks in the coming decades, not only from climatic conditions but also from a lack of resources to adapt. Among them are Trebbiano d’Abruzzo and Lambrusco Mantovano in Italy, as well as the Sierra de Salamanca in Spain.

HIGH VULNERABILITY FOR RIOJA

In the case of three other groups, vulnerability is high, but not at the level of the most vulnerable group. These comprise 25% of European wine regions and include appellations such as Côtes de Provence (France), Conegliano Valdobbiadene Prosecco (Italy), Alentejo (Portugal) and Rioja (Spain)and some appellations in central Italy (e.g. Colli Maceratesi and Colline Teramane Montepulciano d’Abruzzo).

Moderate and low risk groups comprise approximately 70% of regions, including Côtes d’Auvergne and Alsace in France, Rheinhessen in Germany and Alto Adige in Italy. For many of these regions, their ability to adapt is key. They have the potential resources to adapt to environmental changes, such as moving to higher altitudes or investing in advanced technologies.

“The more than a thousand European geographical indications differ enormously not only in environmental, climatic and processing conditions, but also in their cultural values ​​and traditions. All these elements contribute to defining the terroir (terroir) of a region,” explains Sebastian Candiago , who worked on the study during his PhD in Climate Change Science and Management at the Ca’ Foscari University of Venice and is now a researcher at the University of Bayreuth, Germany.

“Climate change presents a significant challenge for winegrowers because grapevines are perennial crops that depend on specific local conditions to grow. Additionally, modifying production specifications can be quite difficult. Therefore, both flexibility and foresight are essential.

“Our research aims to identify which wine regions are likely to face the greatest challenges, ensuring they continue to offer economic, environmental, cultural and identity value.

“In some cases, the solution may be found in strategies such as canopy management, use of irrigation, modification of vineyard structure, rootstock selection or use of cover crops. In other cases, the rules will need to be changed more thoroughly.

“Specifications are made to regulate and be durable, but they are not eternal. This is evident in Bordeaux, France, where an experiment has been introduced to explore the use of grape varieties such as Touriga Nacional, which are typical of Portugal and are adapted better in warmer climates. “This could help the wine region become more resilient to future changes.”

The research results are available online through an interactive map that allows users to analyze each protected designation of origin in Europe and its characteristics.