The battle to elect a new head of state enters a new phase. The Shiite tandem once again promotes Frangié’s candidacy. Behind the scenes, the main regional and international players are moving to find a common candidacy. From Bkerké there are contacts with the different Christian factions to try to find a common name. Waiting for a new call from the Chamber.
Beirut () – The long battle to elect a new president of the Lebanese Republic, whose position has been vacant since last November, has entered a new phase in recent days, marked by a double announcement. The explicit support of the Shiite tandem Amal-Hezbollah for the candidacy of former minister Sleiman Frangié (57), close to Syria and with personal ties to President Bashar al-Assad, and the decision of the Maronite patriarch Beshara Raï to bet on a name “detached of any affiliation.” This position leads him to reject the candidacy of Frangié, who is also the target of open hostility from the two main Christian formations, the Lebanese Forces and the Free Patriotic Movement.
However, despite the support for Frangié, who claims his impartiality in the face of the hardening of the Christian front – which has made harsh statements against him – the pro-Iranian front has left the door open for a compromise candidacy. An opening that leaves room for maneuver despite the threats of “divorce” of Sami Gemayel, leader of Kataëb, and that feeds the hope of seeing a president elected before the summer.
“Unfortunately -explained the cardinal- the election of a president clashes with the disagreement about his belonging” both to the “moumanaa” (Hezbollah and satellite movements), and to the “sovereignty faction” made up of parties and deputies hostile to the pro-sovereign bloc. Tehran and its militia. “The only solution is, therefore,” he added, “get out of this scheme and elect a head of state free of any link, affiliation, field or axis of alliances.” The position of the Maronite patriarch (and Hezbollah’s verbal relaxation) should relaunch an electoral process that has been completely blocked for more than four months and open it up, leading it towards “a third way”.
Indeed, since Michel Aoun’s term ended on October 31, 2022, the deputies, deeply divided among themselves, have not been able to name a successor, and no camp has a clear majority in the Chamber to impose its candidate. The picture is complicated by the sometimes contradictory position of a “soft bench” made up of Sunni deputies in disarray since Saad Hariri withdrew from politics, and a multi-denominational group of some fifteen deputies linked to the October 2019 revolt. Geagea , a leader of the Lebanese Forces, also used the boycott weapon, threatening to prevent the quorum of 86 votes out of 128 deputies that makes Frangié’s election valid, if the Shiite party obtains the 65 votes necessary for victory in the second return, as established by the Constitution.
Regional and international actors
The presidential battle is also characterized by a regional and international component. At least four countries, whose representatives met on February 6 in Paris, have a voice in this chapter: the United States and France on the western shore, and Iran and Saudi Arabia on the eastern. In addition, some well-informed diplomats also include Egypt and Qatar in the game.
In fact, it is significant that the day after the statements by the Maronite patriarch, the representative of one of these “big voters”, the Saudi ambassador Walid Boukhari, began a new tour of talks with personalities involved in the presidential elections from Bkerké. He has declared himself “close to the positions” of the cardinal, but has avoided giving names or interfering in the candidacies. The French ambassador, Anne Grillo, joined this new “diplomatic waltz” yesterday by visiting the president of the Chamber.
It should also be noted that, in the context of the attempts made to break the immobility, the head of the Maronite Church has commissioned Msgr. Antoine Bou Najm, Maronite Archbishop of Antelias, to ask interested Christian personalities to draw up a list of candidates approved presidential His goal is that common names emerge on these lists. Among the personalities who could count on a common consensus base in this new form of consultation are former ministers Roger Dib and Ziyad Baroud. Lastly, at the legislative level, the President of the Chamber awaits the result of these new consultations to convene a new session of the Chamber in order to carry out the vote.
