takeoff of the administration of Gustavo Petro in economic matter, although it was known that he was taking the country at the beginning of a phase of deceleration, It has been more eventful than many expected for the first 100 days.
(See: Have Petro’s statements caused significant capital outflows?).
Amid fears of world Recession, and with inflation still on the rise, for analysts like Luis Fernando Mejía, director of the Center for Economic Studies Fedesarrollo, The most important achievement of the Executive was tax reform, which will increase government revenue by about one point of GDP.
“To the extent that the Government decides to allocate part of the additional collection to lower the fiscal deficit, it could generate an improvement in the fiscal perspectives”, explains the expert.
But with the tax in the background, Petro’s economic start has been very complex to assimilate, especially for businessmen, who will have the largest share in the new collection of the reform, but that despite the clouds that there are for investment, especially in hydrocarbons, they are already beginning to seek how to weather the new reality to continue their activities.
(See: World leaders support drug legalization proposed by Petro).
In these first 100 days, the Government noted other milestones such as andhe beginning of the commercial reopening with Venezuela and the agreement for the purchase of 3 million hectares of land for the livestock sector, a figure that, according to the Ministry of Agriculture, will be lower.
In addition, in these three long months of the Petro administration, the trills and the contradiction between some bishops of the president have generated high volatility in the markets, which led the dollar to break the barrier of 5,000 pesos for the first time and a greater loss of confidence, not only because of what is happening in the world.
(See: Agrarian reform and other topics of the meeting between Petro and Macron).
“In addition to the reform, there is the speed of the energy transition, especially with a sector that, like oil and mining, is crucial for exports, representing 57 percent of foreign sales to date, and this is going to be decisive not only now but going forward in terms of various variables at the local level such as the price of the dollar”, emphasizes Mejía.
With this balance, Henry Amorocho, professor at the Universidad del Rosario, points out that to the extent that progress is made in the Development Plan, the uncertainty will subside.
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ÓMAR G. SMOKED RED
Portfolio Editor
