A bold Putin transfers tension to Europe and challenges NATO with movements on the Estonian border

In fact, Putin in Minsk wanted to talk about peace… although on his own terms. He proposed that negotiations resumebut that these “focused on the current reality” of the front and had as an interlocutor a “legitimate representative” of the kyiv regime.

There is a lot to interpret in both statements: on the one hand, Putin seems to repeat the fallacious argument that Russia is advancing unchecked through Ukraine and calling for a peace advantageous to its interests. On the other hand, he intends delegitimize the Zelensky regime and sow doubts among those who support him.

[Dos años de la caída de Azovstal: “Las torturas rusas me han convertido en nacionalista ucraniano”]

This is not the case no matter how much it is repeated: Ukraine is on the defensive and there is no shortage of reports and articles about how exhausted its forces are. Now, every day there are hundreds of casualties in the Russian ranks without anyone being able to write about it from within. All in exchange for very few advantages: in April, Russia advanced 81 square kilometers on Ukrainian soil. In May, the figure will be similar. They have been crashing into Chasiv Yar, next to Bakhmut, for seven weeks, and the Kharkiv offensive has stalled before the first obstacle worthy of the name, the city of Vovchansk.

All this when American military aid has not yet fully arrived – several ATACMS have, which Ukraine has not hesitated to use immediately, causing serious logistical damage to the enemy – and in the midst of an almost suicidal attack by the Russian army, which He does not stop sending more and more men to the slaughterhouse in search of any square kilometer that will allow him an advantage in possible negotiations, as Putin’s bold words demonstrate.

Everything but peace

As we said, the other objective of the Russian president’s press conference was to cast doubt on the legitimacy of Volodymyr Zelensky as head of the Ukrainian government. Putin did not want to make it clear whether he would accept Zelensky as an interlocutor in possible negotiations, since, since elections had not been called on the scheduled date, His term would have already ended this month. The autocrat placed special emphasis on this circumstance, probably to start a debate that could also spread throughout the West.

Be that as it may, it is difficult to believe Putin when he talks about peace. Not only because it was he who started a bloody war that has been going on for two and a half years and has caused tens of thousands of deaths and millions of displaced people, but because of his most recent actions. To the aforementioned military exercises with non-strategic nuclear weapons, we must add the recent Kharkiv offensive and the skirmishes in the Kursk border with the Sumy regionas reported this week by Ukrainian sources.

It doesn’t stop there: this Tuesday, the Russian Ministry of Defense multiplied the tension by asking the Kremlin to reassess its maritime borders with Estonia. The friction point is mouth of the Narva Riverwhich in practice separates both countries.

It should be remembered that Estonia, Finland and Russia share access to the Baltic Sea through the Gulf of Finland. In fact, the port of Saint Petersburg, the city where Putin began his political career, is probably the most important in the area and is just 150 kilometers by road from the neighboring country.

Testing NATO

Since the war in Ukraine began, Western countries have been preparing for a possible attack on a NATO member or, at least, for a provocation that could lead to an escalation. Many thought that that country would be Poland, others were leaning towards the Baltic countries, specifically Estonia and Latvia, the two with which Russia has a border. To attack Lithuania, the Russian army would have to access via Belarussomething that, on the other hand, he already did to attack kyiv.

This provocation would be gradual and we may already be beginning to see its first steps. This Friday, several Russian guards removed up to twenty-four buoys that marked the path of the Estonian ships in a clear challenge to the neighboring authorities.

Obviously, it is no coincidence that on a Tuesday there is a request to redefine maritime borders and after 36 hours action is taken in this way. Putin wants to know how Estonia is going to react and, above all, how Europe and NATO are going to react.

In principle, Russia is not interested in a war with the Atlantic Alliance, but it may want to test its options in anticipation that donald trump win the November elections in the United States and decide to reconsider its pacts with Europe.

If, at the time, Putin was able to convince the former president that Ukraine was Russia, perhaps now he can convince him that Estonia is too, appealing to the fact that the Baltic republic became part of the Soviet Union… and ignoring that such This circumstance was only possible after the pact between Hitler and Stalin in 1939.

The “Trojan horses”, on alert

For now, Estonia has responded forcefully, demanding explanations and taking advantage of the treaty that both countries signed in 2022, weeks before Russia began its invasion of Ukraine.

Kaja Kallas, Prime Minister of Estonia, said this Friday that Russia “uses border conflicts to generate fear and anxiety.” The point is to create tension and try to find out to what extent Europe and NATO can tolerate it. It is highly unlikely that the Ukrainian war will stay in Ukraine. The only thing that could prevent the extension of the conflict would be a total defeat of the Russian army and, to do so, the West would have to take the threat even more seriously.

The problem is that the West is not united and it is not precisely because of the Kremlin’s interference. To the Slovak refusal to help Ukraine with more arms shipments, we must add the attempt to Viktor Orbán, the pro-Russian Hungarian leader, to “redefine” his relationship with NATO, so that his country does not have to support Zelensky’s country either. The “Trojan horse” strategy is as old as the world and Putin has become an expert in the last twenty years. Only now do we see the true consequences.