The Financial Opinion Survey (EOF), prepared by Fedesarrollo and the Colombian Stock Exchange (BVC), showed that analysts expect the Banco de la República’s intervention rate to remain at 13.25% in July 2023 and closing this year at 11.75%.
The growth forecast for 2023 was in a range between 1.1% and 1.6%, with 1.4% as the median response. The median forecast for 2024 was 2.0%, with a range between 1.6% and 2.5%.
Read: Gasoline and rentals, the counterweights in reducing inflation
The median growth forecast for the second quarter of 2023 was 1.0%, ranging from 0.5% to 1.3%. For the third quarter of 2023, analysts estimate growth of 0.8%.
Inflation expectations for July 2023 were at 11.64% and for December 2023 at 9.16%.
In the EOF, analysts expect the TRM for July to be between $4,076 and $4,192, with $4,127 as the median response. Likewise, they foresee a TRM of $4,200 by October 2023 and $4,250 by December of the same year.
Read: Business confidence in the country grew in May
The analyst projection for the price of benchmark Brent oil is $80 for July, $80 for October and $79 for December 2023.
The percentage of analysts who believe that the debt spread will increase in the next 3 months was 29.4%. For their part, 35.3% expect it to decrease, while the remaining 35.3% expect the spread to remain the same.
Monetary policy was shown to be the most important factor when investing for analysts, with 27.3% of the answers. The categories of sociopolitical conditions, economic growth and fiscal policy followed with 24.2%, 18.2% and 12.1% of the responses, respectively.
Read: The country’s GDP in 2023 would be 1.1%, according to a Fedesarrollo survey
The common shares of Ecopetrol and Bancolombia ranked as the most attractive among those that make up the MSCI COLCAP. They are followed, in their order, by the preferred share of Bancolombia and the common shares of ISA and Grupo de Energía de Bogotá.
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