The fall in oil in international markets, which has been cut so far this year in the case of the reference Brent barrel in Europe, 11.6% It is an indicator that we must look for other opportunities among raw materials so far this year. Above all, because the market does not consider that the recovery in demand, especially from the angle of China, can gain traction, given the poor activity data from the leading global consumer.
But the negative data has gone further. In fact, in the last 12 months the global drop in commodities has reached 25%.
Since reinforced GIs are, in his opinion, the seven raw materials in which to invest even in this month of July. But at the top, is gold, something that is also endorsed by analysts consulted by Investment Strategies in order to find the best raw materials to invest at this time.
For the independent analyst Roberto Moro, the monitoring of raw materials should be a constant in the remainder of the year “look at them all, but incorporate none”. In fact, in the case of oil it indicates that “All it does is pivot around that $70.50 zone, but it doesn’t do anything else, either up or down, although you have to be very careful if you go below $67.”
Although Roberto Moro points out that “perhaps the only one that can have a certain route is gold, because from the maximums in 2,085, which were historical maximums, he has corrected and has sought the 0.382% fibonacci of all the rise since October of last year . Therefore, a ‘level’ to try, at least, rebound”.
In addition – the independent analyst points out – “the risk/return ratio is favorable for us, because slightly below 1,900 that bullish position will have to be abandoned, with which the loss of the position would be 2%. But we can look for some recovery that will look for some Fibonacci of what has been the fall, and therefore objectives of 1970, 1990 or 2015, this may be the only option, because I don’t see the money either”.
In the case of Rafael Ojeda, global macro analyst at Fortage Funds, He also opts for the precious metal since it indicates that, if we find that inflation does not go down and the war between Russia and Ukraine escalates, we can find a good moment for gold”.
He also points out that “a few months ago it lasted practically at maximums, in the 2,000 dollars and it could be a shelter and it could be interesting.” But if the opposite situation occurs, “crude oil and its price could be interesting. The problem that we can find is that this increase leads to an increase in the price of gasoline and that inflation rises again ”.
Javier Alfayate, GPM analyst, He affirms that there may be opportunities in agriculture “with funds that are priced in corn, soybeans and wheat that are bullish.” As for gold, “it is consolidating and can serve as a refuge and now in July it begins an upward pattern until the beginning of September. The physical gold ETF that it replicates is building on that trend. which for now is bullish”.
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From IG they emphasize that investing in gold is a reliable option for diversification due to its safe value against inflation, its volatility and liquidity and offers, de facto, an important possibility for long-term investors, because low volatility of the precious metal is expected for 2024.
After gold, the firm’s analysts bet on the silver he coffee, the cocoa futures sugar, Brent oil and Natural Gas Futures
