Following Senegalese President Macky Sall’s speech on Monday, July 3, announcing that he will not stand as a candidate in the upcoming presidential elections, many questions remain unanswered. Although the presidential camp has not proposed anyone, the Benno Bokk Yaakar coalition must find a successor in less than eight months.
First modification:
With our correspondent in Dakar, Charlotte Idrac
For many, Macky Sall’s resignation from a new candidacy is a relief: the announcement of a candidacy raised fears of new tensions. The president’s decision has calmed, at least for the moment, a very tense political climate, after the deadly violence in early June.
“I have a code of honor and a sense of historical responsibility that obligate me to preserve my dignity and my word,” Macky Sall declared in his message to the nation. “I have a clear conscience and memory of what I have said, written and repeated: (…) that is to say that the term of 2019 has been my second and last term,” he insisted. The head of state affirmed, therefore, that the debate on a third term was born from “rumors”.
But in recent months it has sent signals in the opposite direction. What’s more, people close to him, senior officials from his party and ministers have defended tooth and nail the idea of a new candidacy: it is difficult to imagine that this would have happened without the support of the Presidency.
So what could have tipped the scales? Street pressure? Petitions and demonstrations, in particular from the platform of active forces F24? Or was it international pressure, with foreign ministries not favorable to a third term?
Religious leaders could also have had an influence: Macky Sall went to see the general jalife of the Mouride Guild a few weeks ago. In any case, it is difficult to know exactly at this time.
Personalities close to Macky Sall
This announcement now raises the question of succession in the presidential field. Until now, there was no debate: some leaders of the presidential party, the Alliance for the Republic (APR), insisted that Macky Sall would be their “A, B or C or X” candidate.
From now on, they will have to choose a successor, and quickly, since no one has come forward: the ruling coalition has less than eight months to prepare a plan B. In the media and in political conversations Some names are circulating, among which Amadou Ba stands out: the current head of government, who has been a minister several times, already represented the head of state at the Tabaski prayer in the Grand Mosque of Dakar last week.
Other personalities mentioned are Abdoulaye Daouda Diallo – close to the president and president of the Economic, Social and Environmental Council – and the current Minister of Agriculture, Aly Ngouille Ndiaye. At the moment, “there is no project,” says an APR official, but a double issue is at stake: avoiding a succession battle in the presidential party, but also preserving the unity of the ruling Benno Bok Yaakaar coalition, which includes the Socialist Party and the Alliance of Forces for Progress, currently united around Macky Sall. Therefore, an agreed figure will have to be found.
The opposition remains uncertain
On the opposition side, the main uncertainty is with the Pastef leader, Ousmane Sonko, sentenced to two years in jail, but still trapped in his house. Will they take him to prison? And when? On Sunday night, Sonko declared that if he were arrested, “the sentence would be overturned by operation of law”: in other words, he could be retried, but he might take some time.
In the current state of affairs, his participation in the elections therefore seems highly doubtful, especially considering that he has also been given a six-month suspended sentence for defamation.
As for Karim Wade and Khalifa Sall, the horizon has cleared with the conclusions of the national dialogue that will allow the son of the former president and the former mayor of Dakar to regain their civil and political rights. In his speech, President Macky Sall indicated that the matter would be referred to the National Assembly “this week” for “the modification of certain provisions of the Constitution and the Electoral Code.”
