Diabetes cases will skyrocket globally in the coming years

Research predicts a massive increase in diabetes cases in all countries.

Some 529 million people live with diabetes in the world. The disease affects men, women and children of all ages in every country, and the results of a new study raise fears that, in the next 30 years, that number will rise to 1.3 billion people, rising in every country.

These most recent and complete calculations show that the current global prevalence rate is 6.1%, making diabetes one of the ten leading causes of death and disability. At the super-region level, the highest rate is 9.3% in North Africa and the Middle East, and that figure is projected to rise to 16.8% by 2050. The rate in Latin America and the the Caribbean will increase to 11.3%.

Diabetes was especially evident in people 65 years and older in all countries, recording a prevalence rate of more than 20% for that demographic group globally. The highest rate was 24.4% for those in the 75-79 age group. Looking at the data by super region, North Africa and the Middle East had the highest rate, at 39.4% in this age group, while Central Europe, Eastern Europe and Central Asia had the lowest rate, at 39.4%. 19.8%.

Worldwide, almost all cases (96%) were type 2 diabetes mellitus (DM2); the 16 risk factors studied were associated with DM2. High body mass index (BMI) was the main risk factor for DM2, representing 52.2% of disability and mortality from DM2, followed by dietary risks, environmental/occupational risks, tobacco use, low physical activity and alcohol consumption.

This image shows a drop of blood on the left thumb of a young woman with diabetes who was taking a self-monitoring blood glucose test to measure her blood glucose level. She carried the control device in her right hand. Blood glucose monitoring is frequently performed to ensure that treatment is appropriate. (Photo: Amanda Mills/CDC)

“The rapid growth of diabetes is not only alarming, but also represents a challenge for every health system in the world, especially considering that this disease increases the risk of ischemic heart disease and stroke,” said Dr. Liane Ong, lead author of the study and a principal investigator at the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) at the University of Washington School of Medicine. “While the general public may believe that type 2 diabetes is simply associated with obesity, lack of exercise and poor diet, preventing and managing diabetes is much more complex due to a number of factors. This includes the genetics of a person, as well as logistical, social and financial barriers in each country, which are especially relevant in low- and middle-income countries.”

“Some people are quick to focus on one or more risk factors, but that approach fails to take into account that the conditions under which people are born and live drive disparities globally,” said Lauryn Stafford of IHME and co-author of the study. . “These inequalities ultimately impact people’s access to screening and treatment, as well as the availability of health services. This is precisely why we need to see a more complete picture of how diabetes has been affecting populations globally.” detailed.”

Using the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2021 study, researchers examined the prevalence, morbidity, and mortality of diabetes in 204 countries and territories by age and sex between 1990 and 2021, and forecast the prevalence of diabetes to 2050. They also provided estimates of type 1 and type 2 diabetes and quantified the proportion of the T2DM burden attributable to 16 risk factors. The study team included IHME researchers and GBD 2021 collaborators from around the world.

The study is titled “Global, regional, and national burden of diabetes from 1990 to 2021, with projections of prevalence to 2050: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021”. And it has been published in the academic journal The Lancet. The study was funded by the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation. (Source: IHME)