Vladimir Putin has avoided the worst of the Wagner mutiny, but his regime “comes out weakened”

First modification: 06/25/2023 – 20:47

The armed conflict in Moscow will not take place. Launched by their leader, Yevgeny Prigozhin, into a war against the Russian military elite, Wagner’s forces decided to halt their rebellion on Saturday June 24 to avoid a bloody confrontation with the Russian Army.

Although Vladimir Putin managed to avoid the worst, this episode revealed the divisions between the military ruling party and the external troops fighting in the “special military operation” in Ukraine, in addition to shaking the president’s position, forcing him to recognize the seriousness of the internal threat.

Lukashenko as a negotiator to save the image of the Kremlin

After a day of intense speculation about the advance of Wagner’s forces towards Moscow, Yevgeny Prigozhin himself announced in the early afternoon that he had ordered his troops to return to their bases. This spectacular 180 degree turn was obtained by Alexander Lukashenko, the leader of Belarus and a close ally of Putin.

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Lukashenko claimed to have negotiated a “cessation of the movements” of the mercenaries and a “de-escalation of tensions”, according to the unofficial Telegram channel of the Belarusian Presidency. This version also has the support of the Kremlin, which stated that the Russian president had “thanked” his ally.

“Vladimir Putin never talks to his opponents, that would be giving them too much courage. He does not negotiate with terrorists, that would be showing weakness,” says Paul Gogo, a French journalist who lives in Moscow, stressing the importance for Moscow of using – at least in appearance – an intermediary.

What is certain is that the concessions made to the leader of Wagner and his men had the approval of the Russian state. While Putin had declared bluntly that morning that the perpetrators of the “riot” would be severely punished, Russia has finally announced that it is dropping the charges against Wagner’s forces and their leader. “The criminal case against him will be closed. He himself will go to Belarus,” Kremlin spokesman Dmitri Peskov told reporters.

A “relative” victory

Although the negotiations with Yevgeny Prigozhin forced the Kremlin head to make concessions, they allowed Vladimir Putin to avoid the worst: the “threat of civil war” he had mentioned during his speech on Saturday morning.

For Elena Voloshin, a former France 24 correspondent in Moscow, this quick resolution has allowed the Russian president to retain his status as “savior of the nation” in the eyes of his people.

“He launched an ‘anti-terrorist operation’ that not only worked, but ended without bloodshed,” he notes. “But behind the façade, there is no doubt that Vladimir Putin’s regime has been weakened. For years, Russian propaganda has launched the threat of the ‘traitor’, be it from civil society or from the opposition. This has finally been came true yesterday [sábado]but incarnated by one of his closest allies”.

Anna Colin Lebedev, a professor of political science and a specialist in post-Soviet societies, believes that the Russian president himself exposed the flaws of his regime during his speech, comparing Wagner’s offensive to the 1917 revolution, which brought down the tsars. “By using the analogy with a major historical crisis, the Russian president is indirectly showing us that the elites have doubts and that the loyalty of certain groups is not secure. The doubt will remain,” she concluded.

domestic threat

Regularly accused by the Russian regime of trying to destabilize it, Western states, which view the Wagner Group as a threat, kept a low profile as the rebellion unfolded on Saturday. On the Ukrainian side, the reaction was different. “Today, the world can see that the masters of Russia do not control anything. Nothing at all. Just total chaos,” denounced President Volodimír Zelenski.

On Sunday, Wagner’s fighters left the Rostov, Voronezh and Lipetsk regions, south of Moscow, where they had settled in their attempt to reach the capital, according to local authorities. Although the Kremlin has stated that it has dropped all legal proceedings against them, the fate of Yevgeny Prigozhin’s men remains uncertain.

“Some of them, if they wish, will sign contracts with the Defense Ministry,” said the Kremlin, which also maintained that the “rebellion” would not affect “in any way” Russia’s military intervention in Ukraine.

“Wagner’s forces had already been evacuated after the capture of Bakhmut. Therefore, this aborted rebellion has no immediate effect on the balance of forces in Ukraine,” said General Dominique Trinquand, former head of the French military mission in United Nations.

On the other hand, “the rapid advance of Wagner’s forces on Saturday shows that Russia has very few reserves of soldiers in the country and little protection in the event of an attack or mutiny on its territory, even against Putin himself,” Trinquand said.

Article adapted from its original in French.