“It’s still too early to know what will happen, but it is possible to do an initial analysis“. Former commanding general of the United States Army in Europe, Ben Hodgesexplains to EL ESPAÑOL what are the next steps that can be taken after the uprising of the mercenary group Russian against his own government. He warns, yes, that “it is difficult to establish with certainty what is really happening” because “everything moves very quickly and there is a lot of conflicting information, rumors and confusion.”
At midnight, the head of the Wagner Group, Yevgueni Prigozhin, announced through social networks that he was entering Russian territory to end “evil” within the military leadership. Or what is the same: with the Ministry of Defense Russian against whom he began a verbal crusade a few months ago. “If anyone stands in our way, we will destroy everyone,” he warned. And for the moment they are fulfilling their mission and advancing towards Moscow. Russian President Vladimir Putin has described the rebellion as “treason”. according to Hodges, “raise the situation to a much higher level of potential violence“. And he warns: “There could even be a civil war.”
Everything will depend, according to the retired official, on “whether or not the Army follows the orders” of Putin. What will the Armed Forces do? Will they respond to Putin’s orders, will they obey something from the Ministry of Defense or the General Staff? Or will they switch sides or stay on the sidelines? For Hodges that is precisely the key. Not only does Putin’s future depend on what happens in the next few hours, but it could change the course of the war in Ukraine.
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“The occupation of the Rostov and Vornezh regions gives Wagner what is necessary for a sustained struggle,” the analyst maintains in statements to EL ESPAÑOL and, he adds, that this situation, if it continues over time, could also change the situation in the Ukrainian front. “I imagine many of the soldiers currently deployed in Ukraine will think long and hard about how enthusiastic should be to fight against the Ukrainians in a situation that must seem increasingly clear that it is for a lost cause“, he clarifies.
For Hodges, currently an advisor to Human Rights Firstthe problem is that the image of the Russian army may be badly damaged And with it, motivation. “If the High Command appears to be vulnerable, it will call into question his own motivation, survival and purpose for the War,” he details. Because “no soldier wants to die in a war they think might already be lost or get killed or terribly injured when it’s about to end.”
Added to this is the fact that the Kremlin could no longer have the support of Russian citizens. “It’s going to become more and more apparent to Russian civilians how bad things really are, how many soldiers have been lost, etc.,” Hodges concludes.
