The agency points to “significant setbacks” to arms control in the wake of the invasion of Ukraine
June 12 (EUROPA PRESS) –
States with nuclear capabilities have increased their investments in these arsenals due to the deterioration of geopolitical relations, as warned on Monday by the Stockholm International Institute for Peace Studies (SIPRI), which has specified that arms control and diplomacy for disarmament “suffered major setbacks” following the invasion of Ukraine.
SIPRI has noted in its yearbook for 2023 that the number of operational nuclear weapons began to increase as countries advanced their long-term modernization and expansion plans, including the deployment of new nuclear or nuclear-capable weapon systems in 2022. .
Thus, it has indicated that of the total world inventory of some 12,512 nuclear warheads in January 2023, around 9,576 were in military arsenals for potential use, 86 more than in January 2022. Of these, an estimated 3,844 warheads were deployed on missiles and planes, while some 2,000 — almost all belonging to Russia or the United States — were kept on high operational alert, meaning they were installed on missiles or held at airbases that housed nuclear bombers.
In this sense, SIPRI has specified that Moscow and Washington jointly possess almost 90 percent of all nuclear weapons, before highlighting that their nuclear arsenals appear to remain “relatively stable” in 2022, although transparency regarding nuclear forces it decreased in both countries after the Russian invasion of Ukraine in February of that year.
“In addition to their usable nuclear weapons, Russia and the United States each possess more than a thousand warheads previously withdrawn from military service, which they are gradually dismantling,” the agency said, adding that it estimates that the Chinese arsenal “increased from 350 warheads in January 2022 to 410 in January 2023.”
“It is expected to continue growing,” he stressed, while emphasizing that “depending on how it decides to structure its forces, by the end of the decade China could have at least as many intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs) as the United States or Russia “.
In this sense, Hans M. Kristensen, associate researcher of the SIPRI Weapons of Mass Destruction Program and director of the Nuclear Information Project of the Federation of American Scientists (FAS), explained that “China has begun a significant expansion of its arsenal nuclear”.
“It is increasingly difficult to reconcile this trend with China’s stated goal of having only the minimum nuclear forces necessary to maintain its national security,” Kristensen said.
For its part, SIPRI has indicated that it considers that the United Kingdom did not increase its arsenal of nuclear weapons in 2022, although “the stock of nuclear warheads is expected to grow in the future as a result of the announcement made by the British government in 2021 of which increased its limit from 225 to 260”. London further indicated that it would no longer publicly disclose its numbers of deployed nuclear weapons, warheads or missiles.
In 2022, France continued its development programs for a third-generation ballistic missile-launching nuclear submarine (SSBN) and a new air-launched cruise missile, as well as reconditioning and upgrading existing systems.
Also, India and Pakistan appear to be expanding their nuclear arsenals, with both countries introducing and further developing new types of nuclear delivery systems in 2022. SIPRI has specified that while Pakistan remains India’s primary nuclear deterrent target, New Delhi “seems to be placing increasing emphasis on longer-range weapons, including those capable of hitting targets across China.”
For its part, North Korea “continues to prioritize its military nuclear program as a central element of its national security strategy” and, while it did not conduct nuclear tests in 2022, it carried out more than 90 missile tests, including some that They can carry nuclear warheads.
The agency has revealed that it estimates that Pyongyang has already assembled some 30 nuclear warheads and possesses enough fissile material for a total of 50-70 warheads, both of which are significant increases from the January 2022 estimates.
Lastly, he stressed that he believes that Israel, which has not publicly acknowledged having this type of weapon, is also modernizing its nuclear arsenal.
“HARDENING OF RHETORIC”
In this context, Matt Korda, Research Associate of the SIPRI Weapons of Mass Destruction Program and Senior Research Associate of the FAS Nuclear Information Project, has stressed that “most countries with nuclear weapons are toughening up their rhetoric about the importance of these weapons, and some are even making explicit or implicit threats about their possible use.
“For the first time since World War II, this heightened nuclear competition has dramatically increased the risk that nuclear weapons will be used in a fit of anger,” he said.
Wilfred Wan, director of SIPRI’s Weapons of Mass Destruction Programme, has noted that “with multi-billion dollar programs to modernize and, in some cases, expand nuclear arsenals, the five nuclear-weapon countries recognized by the Treaty of Nuclear Non-Proliferation appear to be moving further and further away from their commitment to disarmament under the treaty.
Added to this are the setbacks suffered by nuclear arms control and disarmament diplomacy after the invasion of Ukraine, including the suspension by the United States of the bilateral strategic stability dialogue with Russia and the Moscow decision in February 2023. to discontinue your participation in New START.
In addition, talks on a follow-up treaty to New START, which expires in 2026, were suspended, although the SIPRI assessment shows that in January 2023 the strategic nuclear forces deployed by both countries remained within New START limits.
The organization has also indicated that “Iran’s military support for Russian forces in Ukraine and the political situation in Iran also overshadowed the talks” on the reactivation of the 2015 nuclear agreement, damaged by the decision of the United States to withdraw unilaterally. in 2018, while stressing that the resumption of the pact “seems increasingly unlikely”.
“In this period of great geopolitical tension and mistrust, with communication channels between nuclear-armed rivals closed or barely functioning, the risks of a miscalculation, misunderstanding or accident are unacceptably high,” warned the director of the SIPRI, Dan Smith. “It is urgent to restore nuclear diplomacy and strengthen international controls on nuclear weapons,” he defended.
“We are entering one of the most dangerous periods in human history,” he said, before adding that “it is imperative that the world’s governments find ways to cooperate to calm geopolitical tensions, curb arms races and do in the face of the worsening consequences of environmental deterioration and the increase in world hunger”.
