SYRIA The opposition and Assad reactivate the dialogue, but the Syrian destiny is beyond Damascus

Following a two-day meeting in Geneva, the Syrian Negotiation Commission hopes that talks with the president and the regime will resume. The prospect of a relief vanished with the re-entry to the Arab League. The central issue is poverty and the economy, the reconstruction is in the hands of individuals. From Riyadh to Tehran, from the war in Ukraine to Erdogan, there are many factors at play.

Damascus () – After putting an end to years of violence, overcoming the bloodiest phase of the conflict and sanctioning the return of President Bashar al-Assad to the Arab League, after regional isolation, the Syrian opposition leaders are calling on Damascus to start new talks aimed at rebuilding the country. “We are in a waiting phase,” stressed an institutional source from in the capital, “and we still don’t see big changes. The central issue continues to be the economy, the priority is widespread poverty. Finally, we have to wait for the decisions that are made at the international level, to see if it will really be possible change, to be able to rebuild with greater freedom and organization, and not only trusting or counting on individual initiatives, as is currently the case”.

Yesterday, the Syrian opposition, at the end of a meeting, called for the resumption of “dying” UN-sponsored negotiations with President Assad, which have long been stalled, unable to break the country out of its stalemate. Negotiations have been at a standstill since 2018 and the central question is the role and future of the president in the political transition towards a new Constitution and towards the elections. The successive meetings and negotiations of the last five years have always failed, and there are no signs of recovery in the short term.

“International, regional and Syrian conditions provide an appropriate circumstance for the reactivation of direct negotiations…according to a specific agenda and timetable,” the Syrian Negotiation Commission (SNC) stressed in a note at the end of the meeting. This body is made up of representatives of the main opposition political alliance, the Syrian National Coalition, which was the main delegation present at the last UN meetings held in Geneva, Switzerland.

In the final declaration of the two-day event, the opposition also called on “brotherly and friendly countries” to “support” the efforts of the UN to “adopt all necessary resolutions to achieve a comprehensive political solution.” The anti-Assad front expects a solution in accordance with UN Security Council Resolution 2254, which establishes a road map for a political transition. After 12 years of war, a nation reduced to starvation and more than half a million dead, what they all want is to be able to rebuild themselves, also in dialogue with the current leaders, who have been in conflict for a long time. Among other things, because the opposition itself has lost much of its momentum and support from the past, especially from the countries of the region. Starting with the Saudis, who have recently reestablished ties with Assad and approved the readmission of Damascus to the Arab League, within which only Qatar remains, building barricades. Signs of openness are also coming from Turkey, although we will have to wait for the next moves by Sultan Recep Tayyip Erdogan, the brand new winner of the presidential and parliamentary elections.

Last month, the UN special envoy for Syria, Geir Pedersen, had also spoken of a “favorable” moment “that must be taken advantage of” to resume dialogue, and had also invoked the need for “constructive engagement” on the part of of the Damascus regime. It is expected, explained the source , that “the dialogue between Saudi Arabia and Iran and the rejoining the Arab League can indeed lead to a change, although so far there are no clear prospects. Much also depends on the evolution of the Russian war in Ukraine, on Erdogan’s moves and Vladimir Putin, because there are many and varied interests at stake. What is lacking is a decision, and a vision, with an international perspective”. “It seems that the bloodiest and bloodiest phase has already passed,” he concluded, “and the desire to start over is strong, but the mutual trust of the two parties is needed, which has been lost. People want peace and stability, wants to fight against misery and the bomb of poverty”.