AIReF estimates a 1% rise in GDP in the second quarter and would already recover the pre-pandemic level

June 2 () –

The Independent Authority for Fiscal Responsibility (AIReF) estimates that the Spanish economy will grow by 1% in the second quarter compared to the first, which would imply that the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) will be above the level observed at the end of 2019, before of the Covid-19 pandemic.

The independent body has updated this Friday the model for forecasting the evolution of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in real time (MIPred) after knowing the data on average affiliation to Social Security for the month of May.

Although the data is preliminary and will be updated by incorporating new indicators into the model, AIReF currently points to a quarter-on-quarter estimate for GDP of 1% for the second quarter of 2023, which would correspond to a year-on-year rate of 2 ,3%.

“This rate of 1% would imply that the GDP index would be above the level observed in the fourth quarter of 2019, before the Covid-19 pandemic,” anticipates the organization chaired by Cristina Herrero.

The model published this Friday incorporates 28.6% of the data for the second quarter of 2023 into the estimate (57.1% April, 28.6% May, 0% June). Among the upcoming indicators pending publication this quarter, the definitive GDP data from the INE corresponding to the first quarter, electricity consumption or the Industrial Production Index, among others, stand out.