The alliance between Pita Limjaroenrat’s Move Forward, Shinawatra’s Pheu Thai and other minor forces lacks the votes of 66 members of the Senate (controlled by the military) to win a majority in Parliament after winning the May 14 vote. The ghost of a new coup d’état by the generals in the event that a government is not formed within 60 days. Meanwhile, the Defense Council proposes the simplification of the armed forces to regain consensus.
Bangkok () – The winning coalition in the May 14 elections today rejected the proposal for a national unity government in the event of a new political crisis. The move came from the Senate, which is non-elective and controlled by the military that appointed its 276 members.
The United Thai Nation, Pheu Thai and Move Forward parties and three minor allies won a landslide victory over the pro-military and pro-monarchist parties, taking 310 seats out of 500 in the lower house of parliament, but not full control. Indeed, they will have to have the support of at least 66 senators to reach the 376 votes needed to be able to designate the next Prime Minister at the end of the 60 days that the Electoral Commission has to verify the results. Hence the initiative of Senator Jadet Insawang to propose a form of compromise with the winning candidates, which would avoid any search for new alliances at the risk of plunging the country back into chaos, which since 2006 has not had a government capable of leading it if not with the approval of the elites and the armed forces, or with the constant threat of being dissolved by judicial actions or the intervention of the generals. Thus, in May 2014, a junta led by General Prayuth Chan-ocha came to power, which since 2019 has headed the government appointed by the Palang Pracharat, which he himself co-founded, although he later switched to another pro-military group in the last elections.
Any alliance with the adversaries by the winning parties will be conditional on the Move Forward’s attempt to create a cohesive Executive or, secondly, on the second largest party, Pheu Thai. Both groups are aware that any other option (for example, an alliance of Pheu Thai with its historical military opponents) would betray the clear choice of voters to create an alternative to military control over politics. On the other hand, a weakening of the alliance without any association to the power of the generals could encourage a new coup action justified by the “need” to safeguard the unity of the country, as happened in the past.
An element of contrast between the two alignments -but also an obstacle to the extension of the majority to other smaller groups- is also the role of the monarchy. Move Forward would like to review it, prompted by movements that over the years have demanded a clarification of the role of the institution and its relationship to the forces that in practice hinder Thailand’s social and democratic growth.
In view of what could be a new and, perhaps, different participation of the armed forces in the country’s management, but also to speed up a reform process that has already begun but is stalled, the Defense Council today proposed its own plan simplification and modernization of the armed forces. In the absence of real outside threats, the size and cost of the military, which numbers 400,000 men and 1,200 generals (more than twice the size of the US military), has long been a lever in the public opinion campaign. that seeks to bring the men-at-arms back to their constitutional role and to release their dominance over the country, giving up their privileges and control of lucrative economic activities.
Photo: Flickr/Abhisit Vejjajiva
