the summit of south american presidents that will be held this Tuesday in Brazil means a kind of “respite” for the president of Venezuela, Nicolás Maduro, in the midst of the international isolation he has faced in recent years, analysts agree.
The political reconfiguration in the region has given Maduro an opportunity to reintegrate into the international space in recent days, says Ángel Medina, a political scientist at the Central University of Venezuela (UCV) and vice president of the Latin American Parliament between 2016 and 2020.
The triumph of the president of Colombia, Gustavo Petro, and the normalization of relations with Venezuela, the reopening of the Brazilian embassy in Caracas and the position of the president-elect of Paraguay, Santiago Peña, who announced his determination to restore relations once he assumes power, are some of the obvious changes that Medina lists.
“It will be strengthened to the extent that it fulfills some of the requests that some of the Latin American countries and the world have made, which is the redemocratization of the country. To that extent, it will gradually reinsert itself into the international community. The trip is a breather, but if it is not managed strategically it can end up being an isolated trip that is not part of anything,” Medina said.
For Juan Francisco Contreras, president of the College of Internationalists of Venezuela (Codeiv), the summit and the reconfiguration in the region does not strengthen Maduro, but he agrees that it is a “circumstantial oxygen cylinder.”
“If the majority of the presidents that are there are democratic, it will have to serve as pressure to try to find an escape valve to the situation in Venezuela, but in the long run it will not represent a way out. With Lula, he has a circumstantial ally and he is trying to provide a kind of lifeline”, affirms the internationalist and university professor.
The internationalist Félix Gerardo Arellano recalls that Maduro’s fundamental objective is the lifting of sanctions and, in this sense, it does not rule out that a “sort of concession paragraph for a peaceful and democratic solution” could be made at the summit.
“Maduro is taking advantage of any opportunity to show that he has legitimacy and recognition, but he has shown that he does not want to seriously advance in the negotiation, if he had not already met in Mexico, in whatever format, and had already given clear signals to the United States of that he is willing to go to elections under competitive conditions,” he said.
ICC investigation
Consulted by the voice of americaMedina underlines the impact of the formal investigation opened in 2021 by the International Criminal Court (ICC) against the Venezuelan State for alleged crimes against humanity.
For Medina, the investigation not only has an impact on this summit, but on “everything.”
“The ICC investigation generates great conflicts in terms of the possibility of Maduro’s relationship with the world. Let’s not see this only as the issue of Brazil, without a doubt it has a huge impact ”, he exposes.
Contreras, for his part, maintains that traditionally, only “ambiguous” documents emerge from this type of summit and insists that there is no way to “go further” without pointing out issues such as the violation of human rights, political prisoners, etc.
In one of its most recent reports, the Independent International Fact-Finding Mission on Venezuela (FFM for its acronym in English), created in 2019 by a resolution of the UN Human Rights Council, concluded that high-ranking individuals in the chain of command of the Venezuelan intelligence services committed “crimes against humanity” and points to Maduro for leading repression plans against dissidents.
However, Lula Da Silva assured on Monday that authoritarianism in Venezuela is a “constructed narrative”, comments that generated rejection in different sectors of civil society. The human rights defense organization, Provea, addressed the Brazilian president, recalling that more than 8,900 victims “overwhelmingly” supported the resumption of the investigation at the International Criminal Court (ICC) for crimes against humanity.
“It is not a constructed narrative, it is part of a systematic plan against the civilian and dissident population, alerted by the UN. We ask all the victims for respect, who deserve justice and reparation that the Venezuelan State does not give ”, she reacted on Twitter.
Even Juanita Goebertus, director of the Americas division of Human Right Watch (HRW) assured that authoritarianism in Venezuela is an “unquestionable reality.”
Maduro, who has limited his travels abroad since 2018, when he was re-elected in elections questioned by a large part of the international community, arrived in Brazil on Monday after 8 years.
In 2020, former US Attorney General William Barr filed drug charges against Maduro and offered a $15 million reward for information that may lead to his capture. The measure was described at that time by the Venezuelan president as an “extravagantly extremist action” and it is unknown if it has been a factor that has led him to reduce his trips.
In 2021, together with his wife, Cilia Flores, he participated in the summit of the Community of Latin American and Caribbean States (CELAC) in Mexico, one of the few Latin American governments that in 2019, after the swearing in of Juan Guaidó as interim president, continued recognizing him as the legitimate president of Venezuela.
Despite having been invited by President Alberto Fernández, citing security reasons, Maduro did not participate in the VII CELAC summit held in January in Buenos Aires, Argentina and, in its place, was attended by the Minister of Foreign Affairs, Iván Gil.
In recent years, Maduro has only traveled to countries considered allies, including Cuba, Nicaragua, Russia, Iran, Turkey, Algeria, Kuwait, Qatar and Egypt, where he participated in the United Nations Conference on Climate Change (COP27) and spoke briefly with French President Emmanuel Macron.
Lula’s objectives
For President Luiz Inacio Lula Da Silva, Latin American integration is a “priority” and with the meeting he seeks to “bring the region together” and “resume dialogue with South American countries, which has been severely cut short in recent years,” Gisela said last week. Padovan, Secretary for Latin America and the Caribbean.
In this sense, Medina considers that it is “depending on the objectives” of Lula, who recently visited China and has participated in the largest number of international forums where he has insisted on the importance of Latin America.
“One of Lula’s objectives has been to establish himself as a leader of Latin America before the world. I think that one of the strategic objectives is to reposition Brazil and position its government as a relevant, influential, important international actor, ”he says.
Regarding Venezuela, Medina estimates that Da Silva will seek to “create a communication bridge” and seek to expand trade relations.
“From the point of view of the interests of Brazil, they will try to advance in what they deem convenient, but I also believe that another of the strategic lines will go hand in hand with the democratic reconstruction of the country. I don’t think it will be a matter of microphones, it will be a diplomatically low-profile issue as your diplomacy has shown, ”he underlines.
Contreras questions that there is an interest in integration in the region and affirms that the attempts to establish mechanisms have had “more to do with the ideological issue.”
“Unasur failed, CELAC failed. They are white elephants that are created and respond to a circumstance that has more to do with the ideological issue than with the real issue of integration. If they intend to do the same, it doesn’t make any sense,” he stressed when asked by the VOA over the summit.
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