the saddest Victory Day for Putin

The mere announcement already shows to what extent Prigozhin continues to be determined to step on calluses in the Kremlin, but the most striking thing is that Putin’s former chef when he was mayor of Saint Petersburg ended up making good on his threat. It was, in general, a day of frantic audiovisual activity on the part of Prigozhin, with the sole purpose of uncovering all the shame of the Russian defense ministry and justifying himself to public opinion.

In the first place, he made it clear that if Wagner did not leave Bakhmut, it was not – as he himself had said hours before – because of any promise, but rather because of a direct threat. “If you abandon your positions, you will be considered traitors to the country“, Prigozhin said that he had been informed in writing by high levels. He then accused one of the units of the Russian regular army of abandoning land in Bakhmut that Wagner had cost half a thousand dead to control and insisted that the Ministry The Russian Defense Ministry was doing “everything possible to make the front collapse”.

[El jefe de Wagner asegura que el Ejército ruso huye de Bakhmut y amenaza con “contar la verdad”]

It was not enough for Prigozhin to blame everything, again, on the “head of the armed forces” (Valeri Gerasimov), but, already in the afternoon, he began to post videos in Krasnoye, Belgorod province, surrounded by citizens who they shouted: “Eugeni Viktorovich, only you can save us” while cheering their speeches, more befitting an aspiring supreme leader than a subordinate.

Serious internal crisis

What has been the Kremlin’s reaction to these new attacks? At the moment, none. By the time one finds out about the Kremlin’s reaction, the car has already exploded or the polonium is already in the veins. Now, the problem is huge for Russia both in a foreign key and in an internal key. With regard to war, how do you calm down the discomfort of the man who leads the best and most prepared troops on the front, the only ones that have managed to advance on any front, even if it is, as Martín Tuitero would say, lamppost by lamppost? How do you prepare the transition so that someone more docile follows orders without question and without setting up these numbers?

Russia has no men prepared to hold the front of Bakhmut. Prigozhin may be exaggerating when it comes to taking credit, but it would be rare for him to say publicly that the 72nd Infantry Brigade and Gazprom private army mercenaries have fled their positions if this is not verifiable. Gerasimov, shoigu and putin they have to remove this man from any position of responsibility for a matter of insubordination… but at the same time they have no one to put in his place.

In political terms, Prigozhin’s challenge is enormous. Even if he is careful to name Putin in his criticism, to what extent can an autocrat president be excluded from accusations of high treason against his own minister – and close friend of his – and the head of his armed forces, named by himself? Can Putin tolerate a charismatic and valued figure like Prigozhin constantly casting doubt on his government and repeatedly accusing him of treason? What is Prigozhin up to by bringing his grievances to Russian territory and encouraging the masses? How do you fight someone who has his own army, an army that owes allegiance only to him? In short, how close is Russia to the abyss of civil war?

Kadyrov to the rescue

So far, the only one who has reacted publicly to such a stream of accusations has been Ramzan Kadyrov, the Chechen leader. After offering himself several times to replace Prigozhin and his Wagner Group in Bakhmut – an outlandish offer, as the Chechen militias can’t even be compared to a military organization battle-hardened in a thousand conflicts across Africa – Kadyrov decided to record his own video to attack Prigozhin, make his criticism ugly and reiterate that they are prepared “in case anyone gets hit again a nervous breakdown“.

Kadyrov, who does not give up without a thread when it comes to winning points in the Kremlin, said he was disappointed by “the attempt by some to attack President Putinfor whom we should give our lives”, delving into the open wound. Besides, he insinuated that Prigozhin was a coward and ordered him to give explanations to the people, who would undoubtedly end up asking for them sooner or later. The confrontation between multiple gangs is definitive And incomprehensible in a country that wants to invade its neighbor. As badly shaken as the Ukrainian military is – which it probably is, even though the US has just announced a valuable new aid package – it’s hard to think that it can’t take advantage of the chaos. absolute that reigns on the other side of the border.

[¿Por qué se celebra el Día de la Victoria el 9 de mayo en Rusia?]

In the midst of all this, there remains, of course, Vladimir Vladimirovich Putin. He is left alone, on a dais, launching paranoia to satisfy propaganda on the aforementioned Victory Day while in front of him a single tank parades because, obviously, there are no more. They are all in and around Ukraine. There will be no shortage of those who consider him the mastermind behind all this turmoil. A cool tactician who would be facing his subordinates to increase his power.

They may be right, but at 70, cut off from reality and after a lifetime of intrigue and conspiracy, Putin looks tired. as little. No one had dared so much against his regime and friendly fire is the one that does the most damage. The tsar cannot allow anyone to get on his beard on pain of ceasing to be the tsar. He knows it, as does his environment. It is to be expected that, in future episodes of this televised vaudeville, he will act accordingly.