On Sunday the 14th, the vote that will close the years of Prayut Chan-ocha’s government in a country plunged into a deep crisis is celebrated in Thailand. Weakened by divisions, the 2019 election winner, the Move Forward party, is a possible outsider. The head of the army rules out new “interventions”. The mystery of Shinawatra’s possible return from exile should there be a broad Pheu Thai claim.
Bangkok () – Thailand returns to the polls on Sunday, May 14, for a consultation that is at stake, more than on programs or economic or social ideals, on a changing of the guard in power since the last coup that returned to the military a increasingly contrasted key role. It is significant that voters – 52 million of the 67 million Thais – are called upon to elect only the 500-member House of Representatives (400 elected in single-member colleges, 100 by proportional system), where the pro-military party was in the minority. by internal divisions, but not the 250-member Senate, appointed exclusively by the military.
Three main candidates face off against some more, and among them the Democratic Party, the oldest still present in the Thai Parliament, historically a defender of conservative politics and the second victim of the decision of the generals to directly occupy power, this time forming his own party, the Palang Pracharat. The PD now ended up in the parliamentary rearguard, irrelevant in fact even in its historical role of supporting the monarchy. The most direct victim of the May 2014 coup had for several years been the Pheu Thai, whose closeness to the policies and interests of former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra, voluntarily exiled since 2008, cost him continuous and direct pressure from the military on his claim to restore “harmony” to the country after years of tension and violence after the September 2006 coup. Since his voluntary exile, Thaksin continues to reassure himself and his family and supporters (now his youngest daughter Paetongtarn Shinawatra, a candidate for premier) a support that is in turn affected by his persistent popularity, the result of concrete actions to benefit less favored groups, but also populism and the criminalization of his opponents.
Pheu Thai is emerging as a favourite, approaching 50% of the preferences, although it would need the support of 376 deputies (between the Chamber and the Senate) to designate the new premier. The Palang Pracharat, the most direct heir to the coup experience, the most numerous parliamentary formation after the 2019 elections and which the prime minister (former coup general) Prayut Chan-ocha left to join a new formation (Ruam Thai Sang Chart), shows fully its limitations and above all the lack of concrete proposals to redirect Thailand to a favorable and sustainable situation, beyond the interests of the armed forces and the elites. Lastly, a outsider is the youth-friendly, free-enterprise party Move Forward, led by businessman Pita Limjaroenrat, proposing progress, freedom and a pragmatic direction to Thai people.
Unable to address issues that are too hot (and also legally punishable) with the risk of a reaction from the military leadership, but also with a social and economic reality in difficulties after the pandemic and the lack of coherent reactivation policies, the candidate parties have used the lever of profits and investments. So much so that, on May 4, the National Anti-Corruption Commission itself warned that this could have a distorting effect on voters’ decisions and amplify the already extensive corruption phenomena.
Some elements are now debated and the prospects are uncertain: Thaksin Shinawatra anticipated the possibility of his return after the vote, but no one is unaware of the disruptive effect that such an event would have, requiring first a victory for his supporters to limit the risk of being arrested and the reaction of the military commanders. In this sense, the head of the Army, General Narongpan Jitkaewthae, yesterday ruled out a new coup, urging the media to stop using the word “coup” to refer to the military.
Photo: Flickr/drburtoni
